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An Introduction To Bootstrap Theory In Time Series Econometrics

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Cavaliere

    (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy)

  • Heino Bohn Nielsen

    (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark)

  • Anders Rahbek

    (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark)

Abstract

This article provides an introduction to methods and challenges underlying application of the bootstrap in econometric modelling of economic and financial time series. Validity, or asymptotic validity, of the bootstrap is discussed as this is a key element in deciding whether the bootstrap is applicable in empirical contexts. That is, as detailed here, bootstrap validity relies on regularity conditions, which need to be verified on a case-by-case basis. To fix ideas, asymptotic validity is discussed in terms of the leading example of bootstrap-based hypothesis testing in the well-known first order autoregressive model. In particular, bootstrap versions of classic convergence in probability and distribution, and hence of laws of large numbers and central limit theorems, are discussed as crucial ingredients to establish bootstrap validity. Regularity conditions and their implications for possible improvements in terms of (empirical) size and power for bootstrap-based testing, when compared to asymptotic testing, are illustrated by simulations. Following this, an overview of selected recent advances in the application of bootstrap methods in econometrics is also given.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Cavaliere & Heino Bohn Nielsen & Anders Rahbek, 2020. "An Introduction To Bootstrap Theory In Time Series Econometrics," Discussion Papers 20-02, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:2002
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    File URL: https://www.economics.ku.dk/research/publications/wp/dp-2020/2002.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bootstrap theory; Bootstrap implementation; Econometric time series analysis; Testing; Asymptotic theory; Autoregressive models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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