Evaluating Short-Run Forecasting Properties of the KOF Employment Indicator for Switzerland in Real Time
AbstractThis study investigates the usefulness of the business tendency surveys collected at the KOF institute for short-term forecasting of employment in Switzerland aggregated in the KOF Employment Indicator. We use the real time dataset in order to simulate the actual predictive process using only the information that was available at the time when predictions were made. We evaluate the presence of predictive content of the KOF Employment Indicator both for nowcasts that are published two months before the first official release. We find that inclusion of the KOF Employment Indicator leads to substantial improvement both in in-sample as well as, more importantly, in out-of-sample prediction accuracy. This conclusion holds both for nowcasts and one-quarter ahead forecasts.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 09-226.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Business tendency surveys; Forecasting; Real-time data; Bayesian model averaging; Employment;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
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- Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Der KOF Beschäftigungsindikator – Zielsetzung, Konstruktion und Aussagekraft," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 3(4), pages 39-50, December.
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