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Der KOF Beschäftigungsindikator – Zielsetzung, Konstruktion und Aussagekraft

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Abstract

In diesem Beitrag wird die Konstruktion des KOF-Beschäftigungsindikators vorgestellt, der auf Informationen aus diversen KOF-Unternehmensbefragungen beruht. Er geht der Frage nach, ob sich die Prognosen der Beschäftigungsentwicklung im laufenden und dem darauf folgenden Quartal durch die zusätzliche Berücksichtigung dieses Indikators wesentlich verbessern lassen. Die Analyse zeigt, dass dies tatsächlich der Fall ist. Zudem ist es dank des KOF-Beschäftigungsindikators möglich, die Beschäftigungsentwicklung für das aktuelle Quartal 2 bis 3 Monate bzw. für das Folgequartal mit einem Vorlauf von 5 bis 6 Monaten vor Veröffentlichung der entsprechenden Daten durch das Bundesamt für Statistik zu prognostizieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Der KOF Beschäftigungsindikator – Zielsetzung, Konstruktion und Aussagekraft," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 3(4), pages 39-50, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:3:y:2009:i:4:p:39-50
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005427569
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    1. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Evaluating short-run forecasting properties of the KOF employment indicator for Switzerland in real time," KOF Working papers 09-226, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
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