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The High-Frequency Response of the EUR-US Dollar Exchange Rate to ECB Monetary Policy Announcements

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Author Info
Christian Conrad () (Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, ETH Zurich)
Michael J. Lamla () (Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, ETH Zurich)

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Abstract

We investigate the impact of the European Central Bank's monetary policy an- nouncements on the level and volatility of the EUR-US Dollar exchange rate em- ploying an AR-FIGARCH specification. Using high-frequency data we estimate the individual and complementary effects of the release of the interest rate decision, the ECB's introductory statement and the question and answer session. Surprise interest rate changes explain the movements in the exchange rate immediately after press release. During the introductory statement, communication with respect to future price developments is most relevant and has two important functions: (i) it explains the previously announced decision and (ii) it serves as a guide for the future path of monetary policy.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 07-174.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:07-174

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Related research
Keywords: European Central Bank; monetary policy announcements; communication; exchange rate; expectations; long memory GARCH processes;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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  1. Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos & Ning Zeng, 2008. "Multivariate Fractionally Integrated APARCH Modeling of Stock Market Volatility: A multi-country study," Working Papers 0472, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2009. "The communication policy of the European Central Bank: An overview of the first decade," DNB Working Papers 212, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Martin Cihák & Katerina Smídková & Ales Bulir, 2008. "Writing Clearly: ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication," IMF Working Papers 08/252, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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