IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jbs/wpaper/201704.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Towards 5G: scenario-based assessment of the future supply and demand for mobile telecommunications infrastructure

Author

Listed:
  • Edward Oughton

    (Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge)

Abstract

Moving from 4G LTE to 5G is an archetypal example of technological change. Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) who fail to adapt will likely lose market share. Hitherto, qualitative frameworks have been put forward to aid with business model adaptation for MNOs facing on the one hand increasing traffic growth, while on the other declining revenues. In this analysis, we provide a complementary scenario-based assessment of 5G infrastructure strategies in relation to mobile traffic growth. This information is required by commercial players in the digital ecosystem for strategy development, and can support management decision-making. Developing and applying an open-source modelling framework, we quantify the uncertainty associated with future demand and supply for a hypothetical MNO, using Britain as a case study example. We find that spectrum strategies require the least amount of capital expenditure and are capable of meeting baseline demand until approximately 2025, after which more spectrum capacity will be required. Alternatively, small cell deployments provide significant capacity but at considerable cost, and hence are likely only in the densest locations, unless MNOs can boost revenues by capturing value from the Internet of Things (IoT), Smart Cities or other technological developments dependent on digital connectivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward Oughton, 2017. "Towards 5G: scenario-based assessment of the future supply and demand for mobile telecommunications infrastructure," Working Papers 2017/04, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:jbs:wpaper:201704
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/wp1704.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Asimakopoulos, Grigorios & Whalley, Jason, 2017. "Market leadership, technological progress and relative performance in the mobile telecommunications industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 57-67.
    2. Yang, L. & Yang, S.H. & Plotnick, L., 2013. "How the internet of things technology enhances emergency response operations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(9), pages 1854-1867.
    3. Han, Eun Jin & Sohn, So Young, 2016. "Technological convergence in standards for information and communication technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-10.
    4. James, Jeffrey, 2012. "The ICT Development Index and the digital divide: How are they related?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 587-594.
    5. Bresciani, Stefano & Ferraris, Alberto & Del Giudice, Manlio, 2018. "The management of organizational ambidexterity through alliances in a new context of analysis: Internet of Things (IoT) smart city projects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 331-338.
    6. Islam, Towhidul & Meade, Nigel, 2015. "Firm level innovation diffusion of 3G mobile connections in international context," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1138-1152.
    7. Islam, Towhidul & Fiebig, Denzil G. & Meade, Nigel, 2002. "Modelling multinational telecommunications demand with limited data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-624.
    8. Almobaideen, Wesam & Krayshan, Rand & Allan, Mamoon & Saadeh, Maha, 2017. "Internet of Things: Geographical Routing based on healthcare centers vicinity for mobile smart tourism destination," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 342-350.
    9. Jun, Duk B. & Kim, Seon K. & Park, Yoon S. & Park, Myoung H. & Wilson, Amy R., 2002. "Forecasting telecommunication service subscribers in substitutive and competitive environments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-581.
    10. Venkatesan, Rajkumar & Kumar, V., 2002. "A genetic algorithms approach to growth phase forecasting of wireless subscribers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 625-646.
    11. Hong, Jae-pyo, 2017. "Causal relationship between ICT R&D investment and economic growth in Korea," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 70-75.
    12. Velickovic, Stevan & Radojicic, Valentina & Bakmaz, Bojan, 2016. "The effect of service rollout on demand forecasting: The application of modified Bass model to the step growing markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 130-140.
    13. Wang, Juite & Lai, Jung-Yu & Chang, Chih-Hsin, 2016. "Modeling and analysis for mobile application services: The perspective of mobile network operators," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 146-163.
    14. Kim, Jaehoon & Kim, Sangsin, 2015. "2012년 국회법 개정의 효과 연구 [A Study on the Effect of the 2012 National Assembly Act Amendment]," KDI Research Monographs, Korea Development Institute (KDI), volume 127, number v:2015-03(k):y:2015:p:1-1.
    15. Hong, Jihoon & Shin, Jungwoo & Lee, Daeho, 2016. "Strategic management of next-generation connected life: Focusing on smart key and car–home connectivity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 11-20.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Edward Oughton, 2018. "Towards 5G: scenario-based assessment of the future supply and demand for mobile telecommunications infrastructure," Working Papers 2017/04 (revised), Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    2. Fildes, Robert & Kumar, V., 2002. "Telecommunications demand forecasting--a review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 489-522.
    3. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - A 25-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 519-545.
    4. Ardito, Lorenzo & D'Adda, Diego & Messeni Petruzzelli, Antonio, 2018. "Mapping innovation dynamics in the Internet of Things domain: Evidence from patent analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 317-330.
    5. Peters, Kay & Albers, Sönke & Kumar, V., 2008. "Is there more to international Diffusion than Culture? An investigation on the Role of Marketing and Industry Variables," EconStor Preprints 27678, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Nair, Mahendhiran S. & Hall, John H. & Bennett, Sara E., 2021. "Sustainable economic development in India: The dynamics between financial inclusion, ICT development, and economic growth," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    7. Zhu, Zhuo-Yue & Xie, Hong-Ming & Chen, Liang, 2023. "ICT industry innovation: Knowledge structure and research agenda," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    8. Parcu, Pier Luigi & Innocenti, Niccolò & Carrozza, Chiara, 2022. "Ubiquitous technologies and 5G development. Who is leading the race?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    9. Goodwin, Paul & Meeran, Sheik & Dyussekeneva, Karima, 2014. "The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1082-1097.
    10. Delgosha, Mohammad Soltani & Hajiheydari, Nastaran & Talafidaryani, Mojtaba, 2022. "Discovering IoT implications in business and management: A computational thematic analysis," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    11. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2015. "Forecasting in telecommunications and ICT—A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1105-1126.
    12. Lim, Hyungsoo & Jun, Duk Bin & Hamoudia, Mohsen, 2019. "A choice-based diffusion model for multi-generation and multi-country data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 163-173.
    13. Almobaideen, Wesam & Krayshan, Rand & Allan, Mamoon & Saadeh, Maha, 2017. "Internet of Things: Geographical Routing based on healthcare centers vicinity for mobile smart tourism destination," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 342-350.
    14. Bomi Nomlala, 2021. "Financial Socialisation of Accounting Students in South Africa," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 10(2), pages 01-15, April.
    15. Jonathan Knuckey & Myunghee Kim, 2020. "The Politics of White Racial Identity and Vote Choice in the 2018 Midterm Elections," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1584-1599, July.
    16. Min Kwan Baek & Young Saing Kim & Eun Young Kim & Ae Jin Kim & Won-Jun Choi, 2016. "Health-Related Quality of Life in Korean Adults with Hearing Impairment: The Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2010 to 2012," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-10, October.
    17. Nicole A. Cunningham, 2015. "Photothermal Therapy as an Alternative Treatment for the Clinical Management of Cancer," International Journal of Sciences, Office ijSciences, vol. 4(11), pages 30-32, November.
    18. Berrin Aytac & S. Wu, 2013. "Characterization of demand for short life-cycle technology products," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 203(1), pages 255-277, March.
    19. Niki Koutrou & Athanasios (Sakis) Pappous & Anna Johnson, 2016. "Post-Event Volunteering Legacy: Did the London 2012 Games Induce a Sustainable Volunteer Engagement?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-12, November.
    20. Arfi, Wissal Ben & Nasr, Imed Ben & Kondrateva, Galina & Hikkerova, Lubica, 2021. "The role of trust in intention to use the IoT in eHealth: Application of the modified UTAUT in a consumer context," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jbs:wpaper:201704. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ruth Newman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/jicamuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.