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The Effects of the Dobbs Decision on Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Dench, Daniel

    (Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • Pineda-Torres, Mayra

    (Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • Myers, Caitlin Knowles

    (Middlebury College)

Abstract

The U.S. Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization sparked the most profound transformation of the landscape of abortion access in 50 years. We provide the first estimates of the effects of this decision on fertility using a pre-registered synthetic difference-in-differences design applied to newly released provisional natality data for the first half of 2023. The results indicate that states with abortion bans experienced an average increase in births of 2.3 percent relative to states where abortion was not restricted.

Suggested Citation

  • Dench, Daniel & Pineda-Torres, Mayra & Myers, Caitlin Knowles, 2023. "The Effects of the Dobbs Decision on Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 16608, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16608
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Martha J. Bailey & Janet Currie & Hannes Schwandt, 2022. "The Covid-19 Baby Bump: The Unexpected Increase in U.S. Fertility Rates in Response to the Pandemic," Working Papers 2022-30, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    6. Joanna Venator & Jason Fletcher, 2021. "Undue Burden Beyond Texas: An Analysis of Abortion Clinic Closures, Births, and Abortions in Wisconsin," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 774-813, June.
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    8. Jason M. Lindo & Caitlin Knowles Myers & Andrea Schlosser & Scott Cunningham, 2020. "How Far Is Too Far? New Evidence on Abortion Clinic Closures, Access, and Abortions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 55(4), pages 1137-1160.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    abortion; Dobbs; fertility; power analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • K23 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Regulated Industries and Administrative Law

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