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Long-Term Biofuel Projections Under Different Oil Price Scenarios

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  • Miranowski, John
  • Rosburg, Alicia

Abstract

With rapid expansion of biofuel production, major concerns have arisen over higher food costs and competition between food, feed, and biofuel for energy-rich commodities.� Most projections are based on short- and intermediate-term commodity price shocks.� We estimate long-term biofuel demand and cost-minimizing supply functions for feedstock and biofuel in developed and developing countries.� We assume input and output coefficients and substitution elasticities adjust over time in response to changing prices in a dynamic market environment with productivity growth.� Three alternative oil price scenarios are considered for biofuel feedstock production and conversation.� The price of oil puts both a floor and ceiling on feedstock price.� We conclude that global biofuel expansion will be limited in the absence of government incentives and mandates, unless high real oil prices prevail.� Countries and regions need large, excess feedstock supplies (price-elastic response) if biofuel expansion is to be competitive with oil or other liquid fuels.

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File URL: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/sites/default/files/publications/papers/p16119-2013-04-15.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 36119.

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Date of creation: 15 Apr 2013
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Publication status: Published in AgBioForum 2013, vol. 15 no. 4, pp. 1-9
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:36119

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Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
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Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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Related research

Keywords: biofuel; biomass; feedstock price ceiling; feedstock price floor; land use change; long-term biofuel projections; productivity growth;

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