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Inventories and business cycle volatility: an analysis based on ISAE survey data

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  • Marco Malgarini

    (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)

Abstract

The paper looks at an often debated issue - the decline observed in business cycle volatility - from a rather original point of view represented by careful consideration of qualitative data deriving from Business Tendency Surveys. It first concentrates on the manufacturing sector, providing evidence that volatility slowdown is attributable to a break in the Data Generating Process rather than to a long trend decline. Moreover, it shows that lower variance of the ISAE Confidence Indicator is mostly explained by the behaviour of firms’ assessments of demand and inventories. In particular, inventories volatility has decreased, while volatility of production has instead increased with respect to that of demand. Both of these results are consistent with the claim that better inventories management should have a specific role in shaping the production decisions of the firms.

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File URL: http://lipari.istat.it/digibib/Working_Papers/WP_84_2007_Malgarini.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY) in its series ISAE Working Papers with number 84.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: May 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:84

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Keywords: Inventories; business cycle; business cycle volatility;

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Cited by:
  1. Chikán, Attila & Kovács, Erzsébet & Matyusz, Zsolt, 2011. "Inventory investment and sectoral characteristics in some OECD countries," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 2-11, September.
  2. Cesaroni, Tatiana & Maccini, Louis & Malgarini, Marco, 2011. "Business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour: New evidence for the Euro area," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 12-24, September.
  3. Sandra Bilek-Steindl, 2012. "On the Change in the Austrian Business Cycle," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2012(1), pages 1-18.
  4. Tatiana Cesaroni & Louis Maccini & Marco Malgarini, 2009. "Business cycle volatility and inventories behavior:new evidence for the Euro Area," ISAE Working Papers 108, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).

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