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O Crédito Imobiliário no Brasil e sua Relação com a Política Monetária

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  • Mário Jorge Mendonça
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    Abstract

    Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar os determinantes da demanda por crédito imobiliário no Brasil, assim como verificar o efeito dinâmico que um choque de política monetária tem sobre este. Com base no modelo com mudança de regime tipo Markov switching, estima-se tal função de demanda usando-se dados mensais agregados de janeiro de 2003 a setembro de 2012. Os resultados acenam para o fato de que a demanda por hipoteca tem estado sujeita a ciclos de retração e expansão desde 2003. O ciclo de expansão tem início ao final de 2005 e é marcado pela alternância de dois regimes distintos. O regime que se concentra entre o fim de 2005 até o início de 2009 foi impulsionado por fatores pró-mercado decorrentes das mudanças na legislação, do crescimento da economia, do aumento da renda real etc. A partir de 2009, a situação se altera, passando a prevalecer um regime onde a expansão do crédito é mais motivada por ações de medidas anticíclicas adotadas pelo governo federal com intuito de mitigar os efeitos da crise de 2007-2008. A fase recessiva do ciclo de crédito é ligada a um único regime que vai desde o início do período estudado até 2005 e retorna por volta de março de 2012, quando a série de concessões de crédito parece entrar em desaceleração. Aplica-se ainda o modelo vetor estrutural autorregressivo (structural vector autoregression – SVAR) para avaliar o efeito de um choque de política monetária sobre a demanda por hipoteca. De acordo com os resultados, um choque contracionista produz o efeito negativo sobre importantes variáveis ligadas ao setor imobiliário. Observa-se queda acentuada e contínua da demanda por financiamento, do preço dos imóveis e do produto da construção civil, assim como aumento da inadimplência. Switching model, we estimate the demand for mortgage using aggregate monthly data from January 2003 to September 2012. The results show that this variable has been subject to cycles of contraction and expansion since 2003. The boom starts at the end of 2005 is marked by the alternation of two distinct regimes. The first one that concentrates between late 2005 until early 2009 seems to be driven by factors pro-market resulting from changes in legislation, economic growth, rising in real income, etc. The situation changes at the beginning of 2009 when the condition of the demand for mortgage is mainly motivated by countercyclical measures adopted by the federal government with the aim of mitigating the effects of the world economic crisis of 2007-2008. The recessive phase of the credit cycle is linked to a single regime that extends until 2005 returning around March 2012 when the series of credit seems to slow down. We also applied the structural VAR model with the purpose of evaluating the effect of a monetary policy shock on the demand mortgage. According to the results, a contractionary shock produces a negative effect on real estate. We note a continuous and sharp decline in mortgage demand, price home, industrial output construction as well as a rising on defaults.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1909.

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    Length: 62 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1909

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