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Mortes Violentas Não Esclarecidas e Impunidade no Rio de Janeiro

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  • Daniel Cerqueira

Abstract

Segundo os dados oficiais do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM), do Ministério da Saúde (MS), o número de óbitos ocasionados por agressões de terceiros (homicídios) no Estado do Rio de Janeiro diminuiu, nos últimos anos, de 7.099, em 2006, para 5.064, em 2009, o que implica um decréscimo de 28,7%, no período. Contudo, conforme argumenta-se neste artigo, há fortes indícios de que esse resultado tenha se dado em consequência de erro e má classificação dos dados. Analisando o padrão de mortalidade violenta, conclui-se, em primeiro lugar, que o número de incidentes fatais violentos com causa não esclarecida aumentou inexplicavelmente a partir de 2007, no Rio de Janeiro, fato esse que destoa completamente do padrão nacional. Em segundo lugar, com base nos microdados do SIM, analisa-se a vitimização segundo o tipo de evento que desencadeou o óbito e identificam-se diferenças de padrões (bastante perceptíveis), em relação às características socioeconômicas das vítimas, mas também em relação aos elementos situacionais do incidente. Por fim, desenvolve-se um modelo multinomial logit para, estatisticamente, reclassificar os óbitos com causa indeterminada, como homicídios, suicídios ou acidentes. As estimativas indicaram que o número de homicídios no Rio de Janeiro, de 2006 a 2009, manteve-se relativamente estável, mas que o número de "homicídios ocultos" aumentou de forma acentuada nesse período, passando a corresponder em 2009 a 62,5% dos casos registrados ou, em números absolutos, a 3.165 homicídios não registrados. According to official data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) of the Ministry of Health, the number of deaths caused by homicides in the State of Rio de Janeiro has declined between 2006 and 2009, from 7,099 to 5,064, which implies a decrease of 28.7% in the period. However, as we argue in this article, there are evidences that this variation is due to error on data classification. We conclude, first, that the number of fatal violent incidents with unknown cause in Rio de Janeiro inexplicably has increased since 2007, a fact that completely clashes with the national standard. Secondly, based on microdata of SIM, we analyzed the different type of victimization and we identify differences in patterns, in relation to socioeconomic characteristics of the victims.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1697.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1697

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