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Uma Metodologia Para Simular o Programa Bolsa Família

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  • Pedro H. G. F. de Souza
  • Rafael G. Osorio
  • Sergei S. O. Soares

Abstract

Este artigo descreve detalhadamente como simular os impactos sobre a pobreza de mudanças nas regras de elegibilidade e nos valores do Programa Bolsa Família (PBF). Isto é desafio especialmente delicado na medida em que não existe pergunta específica na Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD), do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), sobre a renda do PBF e, mais grave, existe discrepância de 2,4 milhões de famílias entre os registros administrativos do programa (Cadastro Único) e os dados das pesquisas domiciliares. Resolveu-se o primeiro problema usando valores típicos para identificar a renda do Bolsa Família na variável outras rendas, que contém a renda do programa. Várias técnicas de pareamento são utilizadas para tornar os dados da PNAD coerentes com os dados do Cadastro Único, resolvendo assim o segundo problema. Além da descrição da mecânica de simulação - que é seu principal objetivo -, o artigo também faz algumas simulações exemplares. As principais conclusões são que: i) o modo mais eficiente de obter redução modesta na pobreza é eliminar os limites no número de benefícios infantis e de adolescente por família; e ii) aumentos lineares no valor dos benefícios levam a reduções lineares da pobreza - o que quer dizer que a região de retornos decrescentes ainda está longe dos valores de benefício atuais. This text describes in detail how to simulate the poverty impacts of changes in the entitlement rules and benefit values of the Bolsa Família Program. This simulation is especially challenging due to: i) the absence of a specific question on Bolsa Família income in the PNAD household survey and, more importantly; ii) the 2.4 million family disparity between administrative records and household survey data. The first problem we solve using a typical value identification methodology for the "other income" variable in which lies buried the program`s income. The second problem we solve by using various matching methods to make the household survey data coherent with the administrative data. In addition to describing the simulation mechanics, we simulate various changes in the Bolsa Família program and find that: i) the most cost efficient way of achieving a modest poverty reduction is to eliminate the limits on the number of child benefits per family; and ii) linear increases in benefit values lead to linear reductions in poverty, which means that the present benefit values are still far from offering decreasing returns.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1654.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1654

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Cited by:
  1. repec:ipc:pbespa:41 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Sean Higgins & Nora Lustig & Julio Ramirez & Billy Swanson, 2013. "Social Spending, Taxes and Income Redistribution in Paraguay," Working Papers 1311, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
  3. Rafael Guerreiro Osorio & Pedro H. G. Ferreira de Souza, 2013. "Bolsa Família after Brasil Carinhoso: an Analysis of the Potential for Reducing Extreme Poverty," Policy Research Brief 41, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
  4. Sergei Suarez Dillon Soares, 2012. "Bolsa Família, its Design, its Impacts and Possibilities for the Future," Working Papers 89, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.

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