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Labor Force Participation in Chile: Recent Trends, Drivers, and Prospects

Author

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  • Patrick Blagrave
  • Marika Santoro

Abstract

Gains in labor force participation rates in Chile have slowed in recent years. We examine their determinants using a cohort-model analysis. Allowing for both age- and cohort-specific effects in the context of a seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE) approach, we find that age factors play an important role in determining participation decisions, especially for males. For females, we find that strong positive time trends dominate the downward pressure from demographics, although those trends have recently dissipated. In addition, we find that both cohort effects and the business cycle shape participation decisions. Using our cohort-based analysis, we construct projections of participation rates, which suggest population aging will put downward pressure on labor inputs, and thus potential output, in coming years. Further increases in female labor force participation—supported by policies— could more than offset the downward pressure from demographics.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Blagrave & Marika Santoro, 2017. "Labor Force Participation in Chile: Recent Trends, Drivers, and Prospects," IMF Working Papers 2017/054, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/054
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco GrigoliBy & Zsoka Koczan & Petia Topalova, 2021. "A cohort-based analysis of labor force participation for advanced economies [Labor force participation: recent developments and future prospects]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 623-643.
    2. Madeira, Carlos, 2022. "The impact of the Chilean pension withdrawals during the Covid pandemic on the future savings rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Mehak Ejaz & Kalim Hyder, 2017. "Are Some Groups More Vulnerable to Business Cycle Shocks than Others? A Regional Analysis of Pakistan’s Labor Market," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 22(Special E), pages 199-231, September.
    4. Madeira, Carlos, 2021. "The long term impact of Chilean policy reforms on savings and pensions," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).

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