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A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies

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  • Mr. Francesco Grigoli
  • Zsoka Koczan
  • Petia Topalova

Abstract

Advanced economies are in the midst of a major demographic transition, with the number of elderly rising precipitously relative to the working-age population. Yet, despite the acceleration in demographic shifts in the past decade, advanced economies experienced markedly different trajectories in overall labor force participation rates and the workforce attachment of men and women. Using a cohort-based model of labor force participation for 17 advanced economies estimated over the 1985-2016 period, we document a significant role of common patterns of participation over the life cycle and shifts in these patterns across generations for aggregate labor supply, especially in the case of women. The entry of new cohorts of women led to upward shifts in the age participation profile, boosting aggregate participation rates. However, this process plateaued in most advanced economies, with signs of reversal in some. Using the model's results to forecast future participation trends, we project sizable declines in aggregate participation rates over the next three decades due to the aging of the population. Illustrative simulations show that implementing policies encouraging labor supply can help attenuate but may not fully offset demographic pressures.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Zsoka Koczan & Petia Topalova, 2018. "A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/120, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/120
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Grigoli, Francesco & Koczan, Zsoka & Topalova, Petia, 2018. "Drivers of Labor Force Participation in Advanced Economies: Macro and Micro Evidence," GLO Discussion Paper Series 265, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
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    Cited by:

    1. Hina Amber & Bezawit Beyene Chichaibelu, 2023. "Patterns and Causes of Female Labor Force Participation: An Age–Period–Cohort Analysis for Pakistan," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(2), pages 1-31, April.
    2. Paweł A. Strzelecki, 2019. "Health, disability and labor force participation trends in Poland," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 31-53.
    3. Michael Callaghan & Jamie Culling & Finn Robinson, 2018. "Ageing is a drag: Projecting labour force participation in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2018/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Zsoka Koczan & Petia Topalova, 2018. "Drivers of Labor Force Participation in Advanced Economies: Macro and Micro Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2018/150, International Monetary Fund.
    5. van Dijk, Mathijs A. & van Dalen, Hendrik P. & Hyde, Martin, 2020. "Who bears the brunt? The impact of banking crises on younger and older workers," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    6. Das, Mitali & Hilgenstock, Benjamin, 2022. "The exposure to routinization: Labor market implications for developed and developing economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 99-113.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; Advanced economies; age; cohort; labor force participation; population aging; simulations; trend LFPR; cohort effect; aggregate labor force participation rate; detrended LFPR; birth cohort; gender-specific LFPR; Aging; Women; Labor force; Europe; Global; participation trend; advanced economy; trend projection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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