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Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks

Author

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  • Sylwia Nowak
  • Pratiti Chatterjee

Abstract

Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylwia Nowak & Pratiti Chatterjee, 2016. "Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2016/228, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/228
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Loungani, Prakash, 2001. "How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-432.
    2. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2015. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indices Based on Nowcast and Forecast Error Distributions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 650-655, May.
    3. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2015. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indices for the Euro Area and Individual Member Countries," Working Papers 820, Barcelona School of Economics.
    4. Mr. Allan Timmermann, 2006. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 2006/059, International Monetary Fund.
    5. John C. Easterwood & Stacey R. Nutt, 1999. "Inefficiency in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Systematic Misreaction or Systematic Optimism?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1777-1797, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Jestl & Robert Stehrer, 2021. "EU Employment Dynamics: The Pandemic Years and Beyond," wiiw Research Reports 457, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Mr. Alvar Kangur & Koralai Kirabaeva & Jean-Marc Natal & Simon Voigts, 2019. "How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2019/200, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2022. "Uncertainty in long-term macroeconomic forecasts: Ex post evaluation of forecasts by economics researchers," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 8-15.
    4. Ms. Burcu Hacibedel & Pierre Mandon & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Nathalie Pouokam, 2019. "Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/020, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Klaus-Peter Hellwig, 2018. "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections," IMF Working Papers 2018/260, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; G20 industrial nations; forecast error; Forecasting; common factors; uncertainty; financial market volatility; uncertainty shock; forecasts accuracy; spring forecast; Current account balance; Inflation; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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