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Growth and Crisis, Unavoidable Connection?

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  • Mr. Roberto Piazza

Abstract

In emerging economies periods of rapid growth and large capital inflows can be followed by sudden stops and financial crises. I show that, in the presence of financial markets imperfections, a simple modification of a neoclassical growth model can account for these facts. I study a growth model for a small open economy where decreasing marginal returns to capital appear only after the country has reached a threshold level of development, which is uncertain. Limited enforceability of contracts allows default on international debt. International investors optimally choose to suddenly restrict lending when the appearance of decreasing marginal returns slows down growth. The economy defaults and enters a financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Roberto Piazza, 2010. "Growth and Crisis, Unavoidable Connection?," IMF Working Papers 2010/267, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/267
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    Cited by:

    1. J. Cruz & P. Lind, 2012. "The dynamics of financial stability in complex networks," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 85(8), pages 1-9, August.
    2. Cao, Dan & L’Huillier, Jean-Paul, 2018. "Technological revolutions and the Three Great Slumps: A medium-run analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 93-108.
    3. Jo~ao P. da Cruz & Pedro G. Lind, 2011. "The dynamics of financial stability in complex networks," Papers 1103.0717, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2013.

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    Keywords

    WP; mover accent;

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