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Devaluation and Competitiveness in a Small Open Economy: Ireland 1987-1993

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  • Mr. Leonardo Bartolini

Abstract

This paper studies market expectations of a devaluation of the Irish pound from 1987 to 1993 and relates them to the evolution of Ireland’s competitiveness over the same period. Changes in expectations of the currency’s devaluation can be explained largely by developments outside Ireland, particularly by past and anticipated movements of sterling. The evolution of Ireland’s real exchange rate over the same period is also found to be strongly linked to sterling’s fluctuations, even after adjusting for sterling-insensitive trade between Ireland and the United Kingdom, and despite the significant progress toward trade diversification recorded by Ireland during the 1980s. The devaluation of the Irish pound in January 1993 is estimated to exceed investors’ realignment expectations at that time as well as the loss of Irish competitiveness since the beginning of the ERM crisis in the summer of 1992. This “excess devaluation” helps explain subsequent large capital inflows and the Irish pound’s smooth transition to the wide ERM band in August 1993.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Leonardo Bartolini, 1993. "Devaluation and Competitiveness in a Small Open Economy: Ireland 1987-1993," IMF Working Papers 1993/082, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1993/082
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Klass H. W. Knot, 1998. "The fundamental determinants of interest rate differentials in the ERM," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 165-176, February.
    2. Sebastian Hauptmeier & Martin Heipertz & Ludger Schuknecht, 2007. "Expenditure Reform in Industrialised Countries: A Case-Study Approach," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 293-342, September.
    3. Kuzmin, Anton, 1971. "A Structural Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," MPRA Paper 64614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Frank Barry, 2001. "Regional Characteristics, Monetary Union and Regional Income Volatility," Working Papers 200111, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    5. Honohan, Patrick & Conroy, Charles, 1994. "Irish Interest Rate Fluctuations in The European Monetary System," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number GRS165, June.
    6. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2000. "On the Credibility of the Irish Pound in the EMS," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 151-172.

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