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Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This Selected Issues paper discusses the risks of low growth and inflation over the medium term for the euro area. It examines the consequences of longer term trends that predate the crisis and the progress made in addressing the crisis legacies of high unemployment and debt. The paper illustrates, in a downside scenario, how low potential growth and crisis legacies leave the euro area vulnerable to the risks of stagnation. The weak medium-term prospect and limited policy space leave the euro area vulnerable to shocks that could lead to a prolonged period of low growth and inflation. Model simulations suggest that a modest shock to investor confidence could push up risk premia and real interest rates, as policy space is constrained at the zero lower bound and fiscal policy space to provide stimulus is limited. Moreover, the lingering crisis legacies of high debt and unemployment could amplify the original shocks, creating a bad feedback loop and keeping the economy stuck in equilibrium of stagnation.

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  • International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/205, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2015/205
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43127
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Athanasios Orphanides, 2020. "The fiscal–monetary policy mix in the euro area: challenges at the zero lower bound," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(103), pages 461-517.
    2. Philip Arestis, 2019. "The past and future of the euro," Revista de Economía Crítica, Asociación de Economía Crítica, vol. 27, pages 6-15.
    3. Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober & Emanuel List, 2015. "Finanzmarktstabilität in Zeiten unkonventioneller Geldpolitik," IMK Report 107-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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