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Growth-indexed Bonds and Debt Distribution: Theoretical Benefits and Practical Limits

Author

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  • Julien Acalin

    (Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

Sovereign state-contingent bonds, in particular growth-indexed bonds (GIBs), have rarely been issued in practice despite their theoretical benefits. This paper provides support for this apparent sovereign noncontingency puzzle by deriving the impact of GIBs on the upper tail of the distribution of the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Although this impact varies importantly across countries and indexation formulas, empirical estimates show there is almost no reduction in the upper tail of the distribution under the realistic assumption that GIBs only represent 20 percent of the stock of debt. Moreover, a sustained premium of 100 basis points would actually increase the upper tail of the distribution for most countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Acalin, 2018. "Growth-indexed Bonds and Debt Distribution: Theoretical Benefits and Practical Limits," Working Paper Series WP18-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp18-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Chirinko, Robert, 2023. "What went wrong? The Puerto Rican debt crisis, the “Treasury Put,” and the failure of market discipline," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Kalamov, Zarko Y. & Zimmermann, Karl J., 2023. "GDP-linked bonds and economic growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Emter, Lorenz & Herzberg, Valerie, 2018. "The rationale for GDP-linked bonds for the euro area," Economic Letters 10/EL/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Harris Ntantanis & Lawrence Pohlman, 2020. "Market implied GDP," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(7), pages 636-646, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth-indexed bonds; State-contingent bonds; Debt sustainability; Monte Carlo simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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