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La sostenibilidad de la política fiscal en Venezuela

Author

Listed:
  • García Osío, Gustavo
  • Rodríguez-Balza, Rafael
  • Marcano, Luis
  • Penfold, Ricardo
  • Sánchez, Gustavo

Abstract

La economía venezolana se ha visto sometida desde mediados de la década de los setenta a un proceso de marcada inestabilidad y volatilidad, causado fundamentalmente por los shocks provenientes del mercado petrolero. La política fiscal ha jugado un rol determinante en la transmisión de esos shocks al resto de la economía. Por una parte, el gasto público ha mostrado un comportamiento procíclico en relación a los ingresos petroleros, transmitiendo la volatilidad de estos últimos a través de la demanda agregada interna y por tanto en las presiones inflacionarias y en el crecimiento económico. Por otra parte, el uso del tipo de cambio como mecanismo de corrección fiscal en algunas oportunidades y en otras como ancla nominal, conjuntamente con el comportamiento procíclico del gasto, han creado una situación prolongada de "stop and go" o de expansiones y ajustes recurrentes y transitorios con elevados costos de crecimiento, inflación y empobrecimiento de la población.

Suggested Citation

  • García Osío, Gustavo & Rodríguez-Balza, Rafael & Marcano, Luis & Penfold, Ricardo & Sánchez, Gustavo, 1997. "La sostenibilidad de la política fiscal en Venezuela," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6105, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:6105
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Monaldi, Francisco & González de Pacheco, Rosa Amelia & Obuchi, Richard & Penfold, Michael, 2006. "Political Institutions, Policymaking Processes, and Policy Outcomes in Venezuela," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3362, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Bladimir David Pozo Sulbarán, 2013. "The Ricardian equivalence: A theoretical curiosity? Some indications for the Venezuelan case (1950-2010)," Economía, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales (IIES). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales. Universidad de Los Andes. Mérida, Venezuela, vol. 38(35), pages 101-125, January-J.
    3. Francisco Monaldi & Rosa Amelia González de Pacheco & Richard Obuchi & Michael Penfold, 2006. "Political Institutions, Policymaking Processes, and Policy Outcomes in Venezuela," Research Department Publications 3196, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Ricardo N. Bebczuk, 2008. "Un modelo de consistencia macroeconómica para Costa Rica," Research Department Publications 2015, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    5. Francisco Monaldi & Rosa Amelia González de Pacheco & Richard Obuchi & Michael Penfold, 2006. "Instituciones políticas, procesos de diseño de políticas y resultados de las políticas en Venezuela," Research Department Publications 3197, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

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