IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iab/iabkbe/201203.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Arbeitsmarktprognose 2012: Der Aufwärtstrend flacht ab (Labour market forecast 2012: The upward trend slows down)

Author

Listed:
  • Fuchs, Johann

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Hummel, Markus

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Hutter, Christian

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Klinger, Sabine

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Spitznagel, Eugen

    (IAB)

  • Weber, Enzo

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Zapf, Ines

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Zika, Gerd

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

After a quick recovery from the international recession 2008/2009 the upturn stopped at the end of 2011, mainly due to the European dept crisis. But the decline of the economic activity remained limited and leading indicators already point towards a change for the better. So far, the labour market has been affected only slightly by the weak economy. Employment reached record levels, unemployment declined further. But this trend will not continue with the same level of intensity as the latest labour market forecast from the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) shows. The German economy recovers from the recent recession although growth rates remain only moderate. We expect the gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.1 percent in 2012. The labour market stays robust but is not able to continue the steep upward trend. After the recent rapid growth employment increases more slightly by 450,000 to an average of 41.55 million persons in 2012. Unemployment decreases by 130,000 to 2.84 million persons. Potential workforce rises by 40,000 persons due to higher immigration and labour force participation of elderly people. Working time shrinks by 0.2 percent in 2012 due to fewer working days, hourly productivity increases by 0.3 percent. Further progress in the labour market could lead to a reduction of structural unemployment and at the same time to an upgrade of employment quality. This way the labour market could strengthen its role as a sustainable backup for the domestic purchasing power.

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Johann & Hummel, Markus & Hutter, Christian & Klinger, Sabine & Spitznagel, Eugen & Weber, Enzo & Zapf, Ines & Zika, Gerd, 2012. "Arbeitsmarktprognose 2012: Der Aufwärtstrend flacht ab (Labour market forecast 2012: The upward trend slows down)," IAB-Kurzbericht 201203, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabkbe:201203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doku.iab.de/kurzber/2012/kb0312.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iab:iabkbe:201203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IAB, Geschäftsbereich Wissenschaftliche Fachinformation und Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iabbbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.