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Business Climate Indicator In Manufacturing, Medium- And High-Tech Industries In Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Liudmila Kitrar

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Tamara Lipkind

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

The paper presents the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) in the Russian manufacturing including the medium and high-tech (MHT) manufacturing industries. The authors explain the feasibility of a new alternative measure that summarizes common information of business tendency surveys cleared up of specific fluctuations in individual variables, and give arguments to prove its effectiveness. The resulting BCI reflects the quantitative changes in manufacturing growth more accurately and with a lead compared to the traditional confidence indicator. Identification of the BCI cyclic profile and its visualization through a tracer demonstrate all significant waves of manufacturers’ optimism and pessimism for the period from January 2005 to January 2019. To construct BCI-MHT, the units of observation and the input information are divided into three groups according to the technological level of industries. The dynamics of BCI-MHT is close to those of BCI; however, during the protracted recession in 2016-2018, the sentiments of manufacturers of medium- and high-tech products were less pessimistic compared with the sentiments of all manufacturers.

Suggested Citation

  • Liudmila Kitrar & Tamara Lipkind, 2019. "Business Climate Indicator In Manufacturing, Medium- And High-Tech Industries In Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 96/STI/2019, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:96sti2019
    as

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    File URL: https://wp.hse.ru/data/2019/08/27/1536127671/96STI2019.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sanjaya Lall, 2000. "The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985-98," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 337-369.
    2. Shyam Upadhyaya & Liudmila Kitrar & Georgy Vladimirovich Ostapkovich & Tamara Lipkind, 2016. "The Main Vectors of Cross-Border Development in the CIS Industrial and Economic Space: Convergence, Potential, Cross-Country Gaps," HSE Working papers WP BRP 60/STI/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business tendency surveys; business climate indicator; medium- and high-tech industries; short-term cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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