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Hypothetical bias and certainty calibration in a value of time experiment

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    Abstract

    This study is the first to analyze hypothetical bias in a willingness to pay for time context as well as the first to test certainty calibration of the value of time. Hypothetical and real actions are compared in an experimental setting where the subjects are given an offer to leave the experiment in advance by paying a given amount of cash. The results show a weak tendency of positive hypothetical bias in the willingness to pay for value of time, though this effect is not different from zero at conventional significance levels. However, certainty calibration, by using the information from a follow-up question where the subjects are self-stating their preference certainty of their hypothetical choice, provides evidence of a significant positive hypothetical bias for non-certain subjects whereas this bias is eliminated for certain subjects.

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    File URL: http://www.transguide.org/SWoPEc/Hypbias_Swardh.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI) in its series Working Papers with number 2008:7.

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    Length: 27 pages
    Date of creation: 02 Jul 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2008_007

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    Postal: VTI, Transport Economics, P.O. Box 6056, SE-171 06 Solna, Sweden
    Phone: +46-13-20 40 00
    Fax: +46-13-14 14 36
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    Web page: http://www.vti.se/tek
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    Related research

    Keywords: Value of time; Hypothetical bias; Certainty calibration; Preference certainty;

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