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Från shopping till sanningsserum. En typologi över förutsägelser

Author

Listed:
  • Bergman, Ann

    (Arbetsvetenskap, Karlstads universitet)

  • Karlsson, Jan Ch

    (Arbetsvetenskap, Karlstads universitet)

Abstract

The article presents a typology of forecasts, i.e. statements on future events or states. It has two dimensions, truth claim and explanatory claim; each dimension has two values, making the claim or not making the claim. The four outcomes are then: Forecasts which make both truth claims and explanatory claims (predictions); which make truth claims, but not ex¬planatory claims (prognoses); which make explanatory claims, but not truth claims (science fiction); and which make neither truth claims nor explana¬tory claims (utopias or dystopias). We regard each outcome as an ideal type, against which forecasts can be measured. We illustrate the use of the typol¬ogy by presenting a Swedish example of each outcome. The prediction is Dahlbom’s The future of Sweden (Sveriges framtid), the prognosis is Wahl¬ström’s After the acid test (Efter stålbadet), the science fiction contribution is Martinson’s Aniara, and the dystopia is Boye’s Kallocain.

Suggested Citation

  • Bergman, Ann & Karlsson, Jan Ch, 2009. "Från shopping till sanningsserum. En typologi över förutsägelser," Arbetsrapport 2009:3, Institute for Futures Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2009_003
    Note: ISSN:1652-120X; ISBN:978-91-85619-42-9
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    typology of forecasts; forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • Z00 - Other Special Topics - - General - - - General

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