Testing the unit root hypothesis against the logistic smooth transition autoregressive model
AbstractIn this paper two simple tests to distinguish between unit root processes and stationary nonlinear processes are proposed. New limit distribution results are provided, together with two F type test statistics for the joint unit root and linearity hypothesis against a specific nonlinear alternative. Nonlinearity is defined through the smooth transition autoregressive model. Due to occasional size distortion in small samples, a simple bootstrap method is proposed for estimating the p-values of the tests. Power simulations show that the two proposed tests have at least the same or higher power than the corresponding Dickey-Fuller tests. Finally, as an example, the tests are applied on the seasonally adjusted U.S. monthly unemployment rate. The linear unit root hypothesis is strongly rejected, showing considerable evidence that the series is better described by a stationary smooth transition autoregressive process than a random walk.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance with number 546.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 28 Nov 2003
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Smooth transition autoregressive model; nonlinearity; unit root; Brownian motion; critical values; bootstrap; Monte Carlo simulations; unemployment rate;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-12-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2003-12-14 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2003-12-14 (Econometric Time Series)
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