Historical Political Cleavages and Post-Crisis Transformations in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland, 1953-2020

This paper combines post-electoral surveys to analyze the transformation of the structure of political cleavages in Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland over the last decades. Although all four countries were late industrializers and were heavily impacted by the 2008 global recession, leading to a profound reconfiguration and transformation of their party systems, socioeconomic cleavages have not followed the exact same patterns. We document a progressive decline of class cleavages in Italy and Spain and an exacerbation of class divisions in Portugal and Ireland over the last decade. In Italy and Spain, despite their strong religious and regional divisions, we find growing support for social democratic, socialist, and affiliated parties among highest-educated voters, while top-income earners have remained more supportive of conservative forces, leading to the emergence of "multi-elite party systems" comparable to that found in other Western democracies. Portugal and Ireland have instead remained with their "single-elite party systems", marked by the polarization of mainstream parties after the onset of the financial crisis in Portugal, the rise of Sinn Féin supported by low-income and lower-educated voters in Ireland, and the exceptional absence of strong farright parties capturing the lower classes in both countries.