IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-03429170.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Quel rendement attendre de l’épargne retraite pour pallier la baisse projetée des taux de remplacement en répartition ?

Author

Listed:
  • Stéphane Hamayon,

    (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine, ICN Business School)

  • Florence Legros

    (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine, ICN Business School)

  • Yannick Pradat

    (Harvest France)

Abstract

The French "PACTE" Law (May 22, 2019) contains several measures relating to the development of retirement savings. The primary goal of the bill is to standardize the existing retirement savings products, while financing the economy and offering savers a higher expected return in a competitive framework. The new law asks at least two questions. That of the effect of pension assets on economic growth, and the issue of modelling stock price dynamics. This paper focuses on assessing the risks associated with providing retirement benefits through a funded plan and analyzes the «well-being» that consumers can get from pension funds compared to PAYG schemes. The results provided by a model built to study the linked impacts of demography and the economy on the French pension system are unambiguous. The comparison of internal rates of return show that if stock prices follow a random walk, a risk averse investor will get more «utility» from PAYG scheme. On the other hand, if stock prices are mean-reverting a massive investment in risky assets would compete public pension plans.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Hamayon, & Florence Legros & Yannick Pradat, 2021. "Quel rendement attendre de l’épargne retraite pour pallier la baisse projetée des taux de remplacement en répartition ?," Working Papers hal-03429170, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03429170
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03429170v2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-03429170v2/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Matheron, J., 2003. "Interactions between business cycles, stock market cycles and interest rates: the stylised facts," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 3, pages 80-99, November.
    2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    3. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ronald Balvers & Yangru Wu & Erik Gilliland, 2000. "Mean Reversion across National Stock Markets and Parametric Contrarian Investment Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 745-772, April.
    6. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:idb:brikps:365 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Botshekan, Mahmoud & Lucas, André, 2017. "Long-Term versus Short-Term Contingencies in Asset Allocation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(5), pages 2277-2303, October.
    3. Steven P. Cassou & Kevin J. Lansing, 1996. "Welfare, stabilization, or growth: a comparison of different fiscal objectives," Working Papers (Old Series) 9614, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Konstantinos Konstantakis & Panayotis G. Michaelides & Theofanis Papageorgiou, 2014. "Sector size, technical change and stability in the USA (1957-2006): a Schumpeterian approach," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(10), pages 956-974, October.
    5. World Bank, 2006. "Fostering Higher Growth and Employment in the Kingdom of Morocco," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7114, December.
    6. Gregorio Impavido & Esperanza Lasagabaster & Manuel Garcia-Huitron, 2010. "New Policies for Mandatory Defined Contribution Pensions : Industrial Organization Models and Investment Products," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2462, December.
    7. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Kierzenkowski, R. & Oung, V., 2007. "L’évolution des crédits à l’habitat en France : une grille d’analyse en termes de cycles," Working papers 172, Banque de France.
    9. Kevin J. Lansing, 2008. "Speculative growth and overreaction to technology shocks," Working Paper Series 2008-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Zura Kakushadze & Juan Andrés Serur, 2018. "151 Trading Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-02792-6, December.
    11. Victor Troster & José Penalva & Abderrahim Taamouti & Dominik Wied, 2021. "Cointegration, information transmission, and the lead‐lag effect between industry portfolios and the stock market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1291-1309, November.
    12. Martin Larch & João Nogueira Martins, 2007. "Fiscal indicators - Proceedings of the the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Workshop held on 22 September 2006 in Brussels," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 297, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Mallick, Debdulal, 2017. "The Growth-Volatility Relationship: What Does Volatility Decomposition Tell?," MPRA Paper 79397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Mallick, Debdulal, 2015. "Elusive Relationship between Business-cycle Volatility and Long-run Growth," MPRA Paper 64502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Alexander Erler & Christian Drescher & Damir Križanac, 2013. "The Fed’s TRAP," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(1), pages 136-149, January.
    16. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew & Dowd, Kevin, 2008. "Turning pension plans into pension planes: What investment strategy designers of defined contribution pension plans can learn from commercial aircraft designers," MPRA Paper 33749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Mallick Debdulal, 2019. "The growth-volatility relationship redux: what does volatility decomposition tell?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 1-20, June.
    18. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Gençay, Ramazan, 2018. "Long-run wavelet-based correlation for financial time series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 676-696.
    19. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 361-381, November.
    20. Gregorio Impavido & Esperanza Lasagabaster & Manuel Garcia-Huitron, 2010. "New Policies for Mandatory Defined Contribution Pensions : Industrial Organization Models and Investment Products," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2462, September.
    21. Geoffrey Ngene & Kenneth A. Tah & Ali F. Darrat, 2017. "The random-walk hypothesis revisited: new evidence on multiple structural breaks in emerging markets," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 88-106, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epargne retraite; Croissance endogène; Time dependent O-U process; TRI.;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03429170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.