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Une Analyse de la dynamique des primes de risque des actions suivant l'horizon de placement

Author

Listed:
  • Georges Prat

    (IEAE - Institut d'Economie Appliquée et d'Econométrie - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Le caractère partiellement prévisible de la rentabilité des actions suffit pour déduire qu'à un instant donné les détenteurs d'actions qui sont rationnels exigent non pas une prime de risque mais une gamme de primes paramétrées par l'horizon de placement. En exploitant les anticipations du prix des actions cotées au NYSE telles qu'elles sont révélées par les enquêtes de J.Livingston, cet article analyse la dynamique des primes de risque ex-ante suivant quatre horizons allant de six mois à l'infini. Conformément aux attentes théoriques, les différences entre ces primes sont de grande ampleur et variables au cours du temps. Cependant, l'analyse économétrique montre qu'il existe des informations communes à toutes les primes (volatilité, facteurs macroéconomiques) et qu'il existe une cohérence dans leurs dynamiques respectives, les primes d'horizons plus courts tendant à s'ajuster sur les primes à horizons plus longs. Ces résultats montrent que tout se passe comme si les experts ne croyaient pas en l'efficience du marché des actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Georges Prat, 2001. "Une Analyse de la dynamique des primes de risque des actions suivant l'horizon de placement," Post-Print halshs-00173080, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00173080
    as

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Georges Prat & David Le Bris, 2019. "Equity Risk Premium and Time Horizon: what do the French secular data say ?," Working Papers hal-04141877, HAL.
    2. Alain Abou & Georges Prat, 2009. "The dynamics of U.S. equity risk premia: lessons from professionals'view," Working Papers hal-04140869, HAL.
    3. Prat, Georges, 2013. "Equity risk premium and time horizon: What do the U.S. secular data say?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-88.
    4. Alain Abou & Georges Prat, 1986. "Ex-ante risk premia in the US stock market: analysing experts' behaviour at the individual level," Post-Print halshs-00172883, HAL.
    5. Georges Prat & David Le Bris, 2019. "Equity Risk Premium and Time Horizon: what do the French secular data say ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2019-8, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    6. Georges Prat, 2010. "Equity Risk Premium and Time Horizon : What do the U.S. Secular Data Say ?," Working Papers hal-04140905, HAL.

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