IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03894389.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Aging, education and intergenerational flows in Uruguay

Author

Listed:
  • Maira Colacce

    (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - UB - Université de Bordeaux)

  • Verónica Amarante
  • Marisa Bucheli
  • Mathias Nathan

Abstract

his article addresses the challenges posed by aging and inequality in a developing country, specifically Uruguay, by considering present and future intergenerational net public flows by age and socioeconomic group. We discuss the potential impact of the aging process on public redistribution by age and socioeconomic group, based on population projections by educational level elaborated from the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC). To address the potential effects of changes in age and educational structures by 2050, we estimate education-specific per capita age-profiles for public inflows and outflows in the baseline year and apply them to 2050 projections. Our results show substantial disparities in the present age profile of net flows from the public sector to population by educational group: the higher the level of education, the earlier net transfers change from positive to negative for individuals. Only the less educated group benefits directly from public redistribution, while the other three educational groups are net payers. Under plausible scenarios of educational expansion, net public flows result in a higher surplus in public accounts. A linear decomposition of the dynamic effects shows that this result is mainly driven by educational improvement, as the associated increase in outflows leads to a surplus in public accounts. In this way, the negative effect of changes in the age structure on net flows is counteracted. Redistributive tensions between educational groups also tend to dilute in the medium term because of educational expansion.

Suggested Citation

  • Maira Colacce & Verónica Amarante & Marisa Bucheli & Mathias Nathan, 2021. "Aging, education and intergenerational flows in Uruguay," Post-Print hal-03894389, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03894389
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2020.100306
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marisa Bucheli & Nora Lustig & Máximo Rossi & Florencia Amábile, 2014. "Social Spending, Taxes, and Income Redistribution in Uruguay," Public Finance Review, , vol. 42(3), pages 413-433, May.
    2. Wolfgang Lutz & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Endale Kebede & Alexia Prskawetz & Warren C. Sanderson & Erich Striessnig, 2019. "Education rather than age structure brings demographic dividend," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(26), pages 12798-12803, June.
    3. Queiroz, Bernardo L. & Turra, Cassio M., 2005. "Las transferencias intergeneracionales y la desigualdad socioeconómica en Brasil: un análisis inicial," Notas de Población, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), October.
    4. Verónica Amarante & Maira Colacce & Pilar Manzi, 2017. "The gender gap in pensions in Latin America," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(2), pages 57-85, April.
    5. Ocampo, José Antonio & Gómez-Arteaga, Natalie, 2017. "Social protection systems, redistribution and growth in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    6. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2011. "Population Aging and the Generational Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13816.
    7. Bucheli, Marisa & Olivieri, Cecilia & González, Cecilia, 2010. "Transferencias del sector público a la infancia y la vejez en el Uruguay, 1994-2006," Notas de Población, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    8. Mathías Nathan & Ignacio Pardo & Wanda Cabella, 2016. "Diverging patterns of fertility decline in Uruguay," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(20), pages 563-586.
    9. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee, 2011. "Population aging and the generational economy: key findings," Chapters, in: Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging and the Generational Economy, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Mason, Andrew & Lee, Ronald & Jiang, Jennifer Xue, 2016. "Demographic dividends, human capital, and saving," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 106-122.
    11. Gemma Abio & Concepció Patxot & Elisenda Rentería & Guadalupe Souto, 2017. "Intergenerational Transfers in Spain: The Role of Education," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 223(4), pages 101-130, December.
    12. Michael R.M. Abrigo & Sang-Hyop Lee & Donghyun Park, 2018. "Human Capital Spending, Inequality, and Growth in Middle-Income Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 1285-1303, May.
    13. Gary S. Becker & H. Gregg Lewis, 1974. "Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 81-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee, 2007. "Transfers, Capital and Consumption Over the Demographic Transition," Chapters, in: Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Elisenda Rentería & Guadalupe Souto & Iván Mejía-Guevara & Concepció Patxot, 2016. "The Effect of Education on the Demographic Dividend," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 42(4), pages 651-671, December.
    16. Marisa Bucheli & Cecilia González & Cecilia Olivieri, 2010. "Transferencias del sector público a la infancia y vejez en Uruguay (1994-2006)," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0310, Department of Economics - dECON.
    17. Juan Carlos Berganza & Rodolfo Campos & Enrique Martínez Casillas & Javier Pérez, 2020. "El agotamiento del dividendo demográfico en Latinoamérica: retos para las políticas económicas y sociales," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue 1/2020.
    18. Marisa Bucheli & Cecilia Gonzalez, 2011. "Public transfer flows between generations in Uruguay," Chapters, in: Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging and the Generational Economy, chapter 24, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Luis Rosero‐Bixby, 2011. "Generational Transfers and Population Aging in Latin America," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(Supplemen), pages 143-157, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    2. Oosthuizen, Morné J., 2015. "Bonus or mirage? South Africa’s demographic dividend," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 14-22.
    3. Spielauer, Martin & Horvath, Thomas & Fink, Marian & Abio, Gemma & Souto, Guadalupe & Patxot, Ció & Istenič, Tanja, 2022. "Measuring the lifecycle impact of welfare state policies in the face of ageing," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-25.
    4. Marisa Bucheli & Cecilia Lara, 2018. "Revealing gender gap changes in home production and labor income in Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 18-12, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    5. Kolk, Martin, 2019. "Demographic Theory and Population Ethics – Relationships between Population Size and Population Growth," SocArXiv 62wxd, Center for Open Science.
    6. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.
    7. Chomik, Rafal & McDonald, Peter & Piggott, John, 2016. "Population ageing in Asia and the Pacific: Dependency metrics for policy," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 5-18.
    8. Mahesh Karra & David Canning & Joshua Wilde, 2015. "A Simulation Model of the Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth in Africa," Working Papers 0315, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
    9. Morne Oosthuizen, 2018. "Counting Women’s Work in South Africa: Incorporating Unpaid Work into Estimates of the Economic Lifecycle in 2010," Working Papers cwwwp8, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    10. Abrigo, Michael R.M. & Racelis, Rachel H. & Salas, J.M. Ian & Herrin, Alejandro N., 2016. "Decomposing economic gains from population age structure transition in the Philippines," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 19-27.
    11. Lucilla Maria Bruni & Jamele Rigolini & Sara Troiano, 2016. "Forever Young?," World Bank Publications - Reports 24996, The World Bank Group.
    12. Alger, Ingela & Cox, Donald, 2020. "Evolution of the Family: Theory and Implications for Economics," TSE Working Papers 20-1139, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    13. Olaniyan, Olanrewaju & Olasehinde, Noah & Odufuwa, Oyeteju & Awodumi, Olabanji, 2021. "The nature and extent of demographic dividend in West Africa: National transfer account approach," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    14. Cheick Kader M’baye, 2023. "Fertility, employment, and the demographic dividend in sub-Saharan African countries with incipient demographic transition: evidence from Mali," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 1-15, June.
    15. Morne Oosthuizen & Kezia Lilenstein, 2018. "Counting Women’s Work in Mauritius: Household Production across the Lifecycle in 2003," Working Papers cwwwp7, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    16. M. R. Narayana, 2018. "Accounting for Growth Effects of Age Structure Transition through Public Education Expenditure: New Macroeconomic Evidence from India," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 7(2), pages 174-211, December.
    17. Karra, Mahesh & Wilde, Joshua, 2023. "Economic Foundations of Contraceptive Transitions: Theories and a Review of the Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 15889, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Florencia Amábile & Rómulo A. Chumacero, 2023. "Should I stay or should I go?: the economic incentives of intergenerational taxes and transfers in Uruguay," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(2), pages 493-524, April.
    19. Mason, Andrew & Lee, Ronald, 2013. "Labor and consumption across the lifecycle," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 1, pages 16-27.
    20. Morne Oosthuizen, 2018. "Counting Women's Work in South Africa: Estimates of Household Production across the Lifecycle in 2000," Working Papers cwwwp6, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intergenerational net transfers; Inequality; Education; Demographic change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03894389. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.