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Les effets de la coordination et de la coopération internationales sur le déclenchement des crises de change spéculatives

Author

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  • Olivier Loisel

    (CEPREMAP - Centre pour la recherche économique et ses applications - ECO ENS-PSL - Département d'économie de l'ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Philippe Martin

    (CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)

Abstract

Nous analysons les effets de la coordination et de la coopération internationales sur le déclenchement et ta contagion des crises de change, dans le cadre d'un modèle à trois pays bâti sur l'approche « clause de sortie » des systèmes de changes fixes. Nous montrons que la coordination réduit la possibilité d'anticipations auto-réalisatrices de crises spéculatives simultanées dans la région et restreint l'ensemble des équilibres multiples, mais qu'elle peut renforcer le risque de contagion. L'effet de la coopération est qualitativement semblable à celui de la coordination, mais quantitativement plus important encore. Toutefois, pour être crédible vis-à-vis des agents privés, la coopération requiert la mise en place d'un lourd dispositif de commitment, par exemple sous la forme d'une organisation internationale chargée de faire respecter l'accord.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Loisel & Philippe Martin, 2001. "Les effets de la coordination et de la coopération internationales sur le déclenchement des crises de change spéculatives," Post-Print hal-03571342, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03571342
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03571342
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    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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