IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01716687.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fraud risk assessment within blockchain transactions

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre-O. Goffard

    (PSTAT-UCSB - Department of Statistics and Applied Probability [Santa Barbara] - UC Santa Barbara - University of California [Santa Barbara] - UC - University of California)

Abstract

The probability of successfully spending twice the same bitcoins is considered. A double-spending attack consists in issuing two transactions transferring the same bitcoins. The first transaction, from the fraudster to a merchant, is included in a block of the public chain. The second transaction, from the fraudster to himself, is recorded in a block that integrates a private chain, exact copy of the public chain up to substituting the fraudster-to-merchant transaction by the fraudster-to-fraudster transaction. The double-spending hack is completed once the private chain reaches the length of the public chain, in which case it replaces it. The growth of both chains are modeled by two independent counting processes. The probability distribution of the time at which the malicious chain catches up with the honest chain, or equivalently the time at which the two counting processes meet each other, is studied. The merchant is supposed to await the discovery of a given number of blocks after the one containing the transaction before delivering the goods. This grants a head start to the honest chain in the race against the dishonest chain.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-O. Goffard, 2019. "Fraud risk assessment within blockchain transactions," Post-Print hal-01716687, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01716687
    DOI: 10.1017/apr.2019.18
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01716687v2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-01716687v2/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1017/apr.2019.18?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dimitrina S. Dimitrova & Zvetan G. Ignatov & Vladimir K. Kaishev, 2017. "On the First Crossing of Two Boundaries by an Order Statistics Risk Process," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-14, August.
    2. Mazza, Christian & Rulliere, Didier, 2004. "A link between wave governed random motions and ruin processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 205-222, October.
    3. Claude Lefèvre & Stéphane Loisel, 2009. "Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities for Discrete, Possibly Dependent, Claim Severities," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 425-441, September.
    4. Borovkov, Konstantin A. & Dickson, David C.M., 2008. "On the ruin time distribution for a Sparre Andersen process with exponential claim sizes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 1104-1108, June.
    5. D. Perry & W. Stadje & S. Zacks, 2005. "A Two-Sided First-Exit Problem for a Compound Poisson Process with a Random Upper Boundary," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 51-62, March.
    6. Lefèvre, Claude & Picard, Philippe, 2011. "A new look at the homogeneous risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 512-519.
    7. Dimitrova, Dimitrina S. & Kaishev, Vladimir K. & Zhao, Shouqi, 2015. "On finite-time ruin probabilities in a generalized dual risk model with dependence," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 134-148.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pierre-Olivier Goffard, 2019. "Fraud risk assessment within blockchain transactions," Working Papers hal-01716687, HAL.
    2. Goffard, Pierre-Olivier & Lefèvre, Claude, 2018. "Duality in ruin problems for ordered risk models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 44-52.
    3. Pierre-Olivier Goffard & Claude Lefèvre, 2018. "Duality in ruin problems for ordered risk models," Post-Print hal-01398910, HAL.
    4. Pierre-Olivier Goffard, 2019. "Two-Sided Exit Problems in the Ordered Risk Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 539-549, June.
    5. Dimitrina S. Dimitrova & Zvetan G. Ignatov & Vladimir K. Kaishev, 2017. "On the First Crossing of Two Boundaries by an Order Statistics Risk Process," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-14, August.
    6. Castañer, A. & Claramunt, M.M. & Lefèvre, C., 2013. "Survival probabilities in bivariate risk models, with application to reinsurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 632-642.
    7. Dutang, C. & Lefèvre, C. & Loisel, S., 2013. "On an asymptotic rule A+B/u for ultimate ruin probabilities under dependence by mixing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 774-785.
    8. Cheung, Eric C.K. & Wong, Jeff T.Y., 2017. "On the dual risk model with Parisian implementation delays in dividend payments," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(1), pages 159-173.
    9. Loisel, Stéphane & Mazza, Christian & Rullière, Didier, 2009. "Convergence and asymptotic variance of bootstrapped finite-time ruin probabilities with partly shifted risk processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 374-381, December.
    10. Dimitrova, Dimitrina S. & Ignatov, Zvetan G. & Kaishev, Vladimir K. & Tan, Senren, 2020. "On double-boundary non-crossing probability for a class of compound processes with applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 602-613.
    11. Florin Avram & Romain Biard & Christophe Dutang & Stéphane Loisel & Landy Rabehasaina, 2014. "A survey of some recent results on Risk Theory," Post-Print hal-01616178, HAL.
    12. Claude Lefèvre & Philippe Picard, 2014. "Ruin Probabilities for Risk Models with Ordered Claim Arrivals," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 885-905, December.
    13. Wong, Jeff T.Y. & Cheung, Eric C.K., 2015. "On the time value of Parisian ruin in (dual) renewal risk processes with exponential jumps," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 280-290.
    14. Dickson, David C.M. & Li, Shuanming, 2010. "Finite time ruin problems for the Erlang(2) risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 12-18, February.
    15. Antonio Di Crescenzo & Barbara Martinucci, 2013. "On the Generalized Telegraph Process with Deterministic Jumps," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 215-235, March.
    16. Dimitrina S. Dimitrova & Zvetan G. Ignatov & Vladimir K. Kaishev, 2019. "Ruin and Deficit Under Claim Arrivals with the Order Statistics Property," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 511-530, June.
    17. Pierre-Olivier Goffard, 2019. "Two-sided exit problems in the ordered risk model," Post-Print hal-01528204, HAL.
    18. Dimitrova, Dimitrina S. & Kaishev, Vladimir K. & Zhao, Shouqi, 2016. "On the evaluation of finite-time ruin probabilities in a dependent risk model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 275(C), pages 268-286.
    19. Li, Shuanming & Lu, Yi, 2017. "Distributional study of finite-time ruin related problems for the classical risk model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 315(C), pages 319-330.
    20. Avanzi, Benjamin & Lau, Hayden & Wong, Bernard, 2020. "Optimal periodic dividend strategies for spectrally positive Lévy risk processes with fixed transaction costs," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 315-332.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01716687. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.