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Equilibrium Pricing and Trading Volume under Preference Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno Biais

    (GREMAQ - Groupe de recherche en économie mathématique et quantitative - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Johan Hombert

    (GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Pierre-Olivier Weill

    (UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - UC - University of California, NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research)

Abstract

Information collection and processing in financial institutions is challenging. This can delay the observation by traders of the exact capital charges and constraints of their institution. During this delay, traders face preference uncertainty. In this context, we study optimal trading strategies and equilibrium prices in a continuous centralized market. We focus on liquidity shocks, during which preference uncertainty is likely to matter most. Preference uncertainty generates allocative inefficiency, but need not reduce prices. Progressively learning about preferences generate round–trip trades, which increase volume relative to the frictionless market. In a cross section of liquidity shocks, the initial price drop is positively correlated with total trading volume. Across traders, the number of round–trips is negatively correlated with trading profits and average inventory.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Biais & Johan Hombert & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2014. "Equilibrium Pricing and Trading Volume under Preference Uncertainty," Post-Print hal-01097584, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01097584
    DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdu008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marvin Wee & Joey W. Yang, 2016. "The Evolution of Informed Liquidity Provision: Evidence from an Order†driven Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(5), pages 882-915, November.
    2. Emiliano S. Pagnotta & Thomas Philippon, 2018. "Competing on Speed," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1067-1115, May.
    3. Bruno Biais & Fany Declerck & Sophie Moinas, 2016. "Who supplies liquidity, how and when?," BIS Working Papers 563, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Julien Hugonnier & Benjamin Lester & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2020. "Frictional Intermediation in Over-the-Counter Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(3), pages 1432-1469.
    5. Andrew G. Atkeson & Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Pierre‐Olivier Weill, 2015. "Entry and Exit in OTC Derivatives Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2231-2292, November.
    6. Puriya Abbassi & Falko Fecht & Johannes Tischer, 2017. "Variations in Market Liquidity and the Intraday Interest Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 733-765, June.
    7. Andrea M. Buffa & Suleyman Basak, 2016. "A Theory of Operational Risk," 2016 Meeting Papers 352, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2020. "The search theory of OTC markets," NBER Working Papers 27354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Guan, Qing & An, Haizhong, 2017. "The exploration on the trade preferences of cooperation partners in four energy commodities’ international trade: Crude oil, coal, natural gas and photovoltaic," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 154-163.
    10. Frédéric Marty, 2023. "Deciphering Algorithmic Collusion: Insights from Bandit Algorithms and Implications for Antitrust Enforcement," Working Papers halshs-04363106, HAL.
    11. Abbassi, Puriya & Fecht, Falko & Tischer, Johannes, 2015. "The intraday interest rate: What's that?," Discussion Papers 24/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Zhou Yongwu & Lin Zhaozhan, 2016. "Impacts of Hyperbolic Discounting on Inventory Replenishment Policy Under Inflation," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 24-39, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Information processing; Trading volume; Liquidity shock; Preference uncertainty; Equilibrium pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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