A theoretical framework for trading experiments
AbstractA general framework is suggested to describe human decision making in a certain class of experiments performed in a trading laboratory. We are in particular interested in discerning between two different moods, or states of the investors, corresponding to investors using fundemental investment strategies, technical analysis investment strategies respectively. Our framework accounts for two opposite situations already encountered in experimental setups : i) the rational expectations case, and ii) the case of pure speculation. We consider new experimental conditions which allow both elements to be present in the decision making process of the traders, thereby creating a dilemma in terms of investment strategy. Our theoretical framework allows us to predict the outcome of this type of trading experiments, depending on such variables as the number of people trading, the liquidity of the market, the amount of information used in technical analysis strategies, as well as the dividends attributed to an asset. We find that it is possible to give a qualitative prediction of trading behavior depending on a ratio that quantifies the fluctuations in the model.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00768898.
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00768898
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
Decision making; game theory; complex systems theory; technical analysis; rational expectations;
Other versions of this item:
- Maxence Soumare & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Francis Bouchard & Alain Elkaim & Dominique Guegan & Justin Leroux & Michel Miniconi & Lars Stentoft, 2012. "A theoretical framework for trading experiments," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12083, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-01-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-EXP-2013-01-19 (Experimental Economics)
- NEP-INT-2013-01-19 (International Trade)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statistics
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.