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Deflation in the Euro Zone: Overview and Empirical Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Bação

    (Grupo de Estudos Monetários e Financeiros (GEMF)
    Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER))

  • António Portugal Duarte

    (Grupo de Estudos Monetários e Financeiros (GEMF)
    Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER))

Abstract

Two main issues, closely related to each other, have occupied the European Central Bank in recent years: the sovereign debt crisis and the possibility of deflation in the Euro Zone. In this paper we discuss the causes, the consequences and the policy options regarding deflation. In addition, we assess the magnitude of the risk of deflation in the Euro Zone. For this purpose, we will employ the methodology of Kilian and Manganelli (2007). Our results suggest that the threat of deflation in the Euro Zone is related to the international financial crisis and to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Thus, the probability of deflation in the Euro zone increased in recent years. Nevertheless, it appears to have subsided in 2017, justifying the view taken by the ECB’s Governing Council, according to which deflation is no longer a problem for the Euro zone.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Bação & António Portugal Duarte, 2017. "Deflation in the Euro Zone: Overview and Empirical Analysis," CeBER Working Papers 2017-12, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
    • Handle: RePEc:gmf:papers:2017-12
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    deflation; debt crisis; Eurozone; GARCH model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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