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The Belgian Industrial Confidence Indicator: Leading Indicator of Economic Activity in the Euro Area?

Author

Listed:
  • Vanhaelen, J.J.
  • Dresse, L.
  • de Mulder, J.

Abstract

The international press has recently reported on the widely-held view in the financial markets that the movement of the Belgian industrial confidence indicator might precede the euro area business cycles. The initial purpose of this paper is to assess whether this market perception is more than a simple optical illusion, resulting from the inspection of graphical representations of the data. For that, explicitly formalised methods are used to identify the timing of turning points in the industrial confidence indicators for Belgium and for the euro area, and the statistical significance of the differences in timing has been assessed using the Randomization Test proposed by Banerji. We conclude that the turning points in Belgium do in fact significantly lead turning points in the euro area from 1993 onwards.

Suggested Citation

  • Vanhaelen, J.J. & Dresse, L. & de Mulder, J., 2000. "The Belgian Industrial Confidence Indicator: Leading Indicator of Economic Activity in the Euro Area?," Papers 12, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:warwde:12
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    2. Gagea Mariana, 2012. "Study of Industrial Conjuncture Balances in Romania, Using Logit Model with Heteroscedasticity," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 59(1), pages 337-349, July.
    3. Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2005. "An Overview of European Economic Indicators: Great Variety of Data on the Euro Area, Need for More Extensive Coverage of the New EU Member States," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 66-89.
    4. Ch. Piette & G. Langenus, 2014. "Using BREL to nowcast the Belgian business cycle: the role of survey data," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 75-98, June.
    5. Geert Langenus, 2006. "Fiscal sustainability indicators and policy design in the face of ageing," Working Paper Research 102, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Luc Aucremann & David Cornille, 2001. "Attractive prices and euro-rounding effects on inflation," Working Paper Document 17, National Bank of Belgium.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FINANCIAL MARKET ; BUSINESS CYCLES ; TIME SERIES;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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