A Univariate Analysis of EMS Exchange Rates Using a Target Zone Model
AbstractThe models in the literature on exchange-rate target zones imply a non-linear time series model for the exchange rate. We show how the parameters of such models can be estimated and develop Maximum Likelihood and Method of Simulated Moments estimators for the target zone model of Krugman (1991). The Maximum Likelihood estimator is based on a computationally attractive approximation to the exact predictive density of the continuous time model. Monte Carlo experiments are used to assess the properties of this estimator. In the empirical part we estimate the model with data on recent EMS exchange rates. We find that the Krugman (1991) target zone model is not able to explain the full observed kurtosis and conditional heteroscedasticity of the exchange-rate returns. Copyright 1994 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tilburg - Center for Economic Research in its series Papers with number 9155.
Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 1991
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: TILBURG UNIVERSITY, CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 5000 LE TILBURG THE NETHERLANDS.
Phone: 31 13 4663050
Fax: 31 13 4663066
Web page: http://center.uvt.nl/
More information through EDIRC
exchange rate ; economic models ; maximum likelihood;
Other versions of this item:
- de Jong, F, 1994. "A Univariate Analysis of EMS Exchange Rates Using a Target Zone Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 31-45, Jan.-Marc.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Bekaert, G.R.J. & Gray, S.F., 1997.
"Target zones and exchange rates: An empirical investigation,"
1997-22, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
- Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1999. "Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Beetsma, Roel M. W. J., 1995. "EMS exchange rate bands: a Monte Carlo investigation of three target zone models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 311-328, April.
- Antoine Magnier & Benoît Cœuré, 1996. "Crédibilité et fondamentaux macro-économiques au sein du SME : un examen empirique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 113-146.
- Consuelo Gámez Amián & José L. Torres, 2004. "A Non-parametric reassessment of target zone nonlinearities: The Spanish Peseta/Deutsche Mark exchange rate," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/73, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Miller, J. Isaac & Park, Joon Y., 2005. "How They Interact to Generate Persistency in Memory," Working Papers 2005-01, Rice University, Department of Economics.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Iannizzotto, Matteo, 2001. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: a cautionary note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 117-129, April.
- António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2013.
"Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey Of The Literature,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 247-268, 04.
- António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2010. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey of the Literature," GEMF Working Papers 2010-14, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
- Eric Guysels & Alain Guay, 1998.
"Structural Change Tests for Simulated Method of Moments,"
Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers
61, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain, 2003. "Structural change tests for simulated method of moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 91-123, July.
- Eric Ghysels & Alain Guay, 1998. "Structural Change Tests for Simulated Method of Moments," CIRANO Working Papers 98s-19, CIRANO.
- Arturo José Galindo, 1998.
"Estimating Credibility In Colombia'S Exchange Rate Target Zone,"
BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA
002604, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Galindo, Arturo J., 2000. "Estimating credibility in Colombia's exchange-rate target zone," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 473-484, December.
- Arturo José Galindo, . "Estimating Credibility in Colombia's Exchange Rate Target Zone," Borradores de Economia 103, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Jes�s Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2007.
"The Optimal Degree of Exchange Rate Flexibility: a Target Zone Approach,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 803-822, 09.
- Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2006. "The optimal degree of exchange rate flexibility: A target zone approach," Working Papers 06.22, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
- José Torres, 2007.
"A non-parametric analysis of ERM exchange rate fundamentals,"
Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 67-84, April.
- José L. Torres, 2004. "A Non-parametric analysis of ERM exchange rate fundamentals," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/25, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Mark P. Taylor & Stefan Reitz, 2013. "Exchange Rates in Target Zones - Evidence from the Danish Krone," Kiel Working Papers 1827, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Flandreau, Marc, 1998.
"The burden of intervention: externalities in multilateral exchange rates arrangements,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 137-171, June.
- Flandreau, Marc, 1996. "The Burden of Intervention: Externalities in Multilateral Exchange Rates Arrangements," CEPR Discussion Papers 1504, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Miller, J. Isaac, 2011. "Testing the bounds: Empirical behavior of target zone fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1782-1792, July.
- Ma, Yue & Kanas, Angelos, 2000. "Testing for nonlinear Granger causality from fundamentals to exchange rates in the ERM," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 69-82, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.