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A Univariate Analysis of EMS Exchange Rates Using a Target Zone Model

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  • De Jong , F.

Abstract

The models in the literature on exchange-rate target zones imply a non-linear time series model for the exchange rate. We show how the parameters of such models can be estimated and develop Maximum Likelihood and Method of Simulated Moments estimators for the target zone model of Krugman (1991). The Maximum Likelihood estimator is based on a computationally attractive approximation to the exact predictive density of the continuous time model. Monte Carlo experiments are used to assess the properties of this estimator. In the empirical part we estimate the model with data on recent EMS exchange rates. We find that the Krugman (1991) target zone model is not able to explain the full observed kurtosis and conditional heteroscedasticity of the exchange-rate returns. Copyright 1994 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg - Center for Economic Research in its series Papers with number 9155.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 1991
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:tilbur:9155

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Keywords: exchange rate ; economic models ; maximum likelihood;

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Cited by:
  1. Flandreau, Marc, 1998. "The burden of intervention: externalities in multilateral exchange rates arrangements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 137-171, June.
  2. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2010. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey of the Literature," GEMF Working Papers 2010-14, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  3. Ma, Yue & Kanas, Angelos, 2000. "Testing for nonlinear Granger causality from fundamentals to exchange rates in the ERM," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 69-82, January.
  4. Consuelo Gámez Amián & José L. Torres, 2004. "A Non-parametric reassessment of target zone nonlinearities: The Spanish Peseta/Deutsche Mark exchange rate," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/73, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  5. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2006. "The optimal degree of exchange rate flexibility: A target zone approach," Working Papers 06.22, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
  6. Taylor, Mark P. & Iannizzotto, Matteo, 2001. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: a cautionary note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 117-129, April.
  7. Miller, J. Isaac, 2011. "Testing the bounds: Empirical behavior of target zone fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1782-1792, July.
  8. José L. Torres, 2004. "A Non-parametric analysis of ERM exchange rate fundamentals," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/25, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  9. Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain, 2003. "Structural change tests for simulated method of moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 91-123, July.
  10. Antoine Magnier & Benoît Cœuré, 1996. "Crédibilité et fondamentaux macro-économiques au sein du SME : un examen empirique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 113-146.
  11. Galindo, Arturo J., 2000. "Estimating credibility in Colombia's exchange-rate target zone," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 473-484, December.
  12. Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1999. "Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Beetsma, Roel M. W. J., 1995. "EMS exchange rate bands: a Monte Carlo investigation of three target zone models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 311-328, April.
  14. Mark P. Taylor & Stefan Reitz, 2013. "Exchange Rates in Target Zones - Evidence from the Danish Krone," Kiel Working Papers 1827, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  15. Miller, J. Isaac & Park, Joon Y., 2005. "How They Interact to Generate Persistency in Memory," Working Papers 2005-01, Rice University, Department of Economics.

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