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The Monotonicity of the Term Premium: Another Look (Reprint 026)

Author

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  • Matthew Richardson
  • Paul Richardson
  • Tom Smith

Abstract

This paper reexamines evidence on the monotonicity of the term premium. Using a recently developed approach for testing inequality constraints, we propose and conduct tests for whether the term premium is monotonic and reach different conclusions from those implied by individual t-statistics on term premiums, even under a Bonferroni-type adjustment. Our results generally support McCulloch’s (1987) view that the liquidity preference hypothesis remains unrefuted.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Richardson & Paul Richardson & Tom Smith, "undated". "The Monotonicity of the Term Premium: Another Look (Reprint 026)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:pennfi:3-92
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    Cited by:

    1. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-380, August.
    2. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2001. "Fixed income excess returns and time to maturity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 431-442.
    3. Ornelas, Jose Renato Haas & Silva Jr., Antonio Francisco de Almeida, 2015. "Testing the liquidity preference hypothesis using survey forecasts," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-185.
    4. Berghaus, Betina & Bücher, Axel, 2014. "Nonparametric tests for tail monotonicity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 117-126.
    5. Le-Yu Chen & Jerzy Szroeter, 2009. "Hypothesis testing of multiple inequalities: the method of constraint chaining," CeMMAP working papers 13/09, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Tzavalis, Elias, 2004. "The term premium and the puzzles of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 73-93, January.
    7. Halkos, George E. & Papadamou, Stephanos T., 2006. "An investigation of bond term premia in international government bond indices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 45-61, March.
    8. Konstantinou, Panagiotis, 2004. "Term Structure Dynamics: A Daily View from the Hungarian Foreign Currency Deposits Markets," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 57(3), pages 315-331.
    9. Longstaff, Francis A., 2000. "The term structure of very short-term rates: New evidence for the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 397-415, December.
    10. Ostdiek, Barbara, 1998. "The world ex ante risk premium: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 967-999, December.
    11. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Monotonicity in asset returns: New tests with applications to the term structure, the CAPM, and portfolio sorts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 605-625, December.
    12. Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2005. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure : A Look at the Polish Interbank Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 70-91, May.
    13. Delgado, Miguel A. & Escanciano, Juan Carlos, 2012. "Distribution-free tests of stochastic monotonicity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 68-75.
    14. George Halkos & Stephanos Papadamou, 2007. "Significance of risk modelling in the term structure of interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 237-247.
    15. Hooker, Mark A., 1999. "The maturity structure of term premia with time-varying expected returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 391-407.

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