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Does Hollywood make too many R-Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation

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Author Info
De Vany, A.
Walls, W.D.

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Abstract

This paper estimates the probability distribution of budgets, revenues, returns and profits to G-, PG-, PG13-, and R-rated movies. The distributions are non-Gaussian and show a self-similar stable Paretian form with non-finite variance and non-stationary mean.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by California Irvine - School of Social Sciences in its series Papers with number 99-00-24.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:calirv:99-00-24

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Postal: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA IRVINE, SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, IRVINECALIFORNIA 91717 U.S.A.

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Related research
Keywords: FILM INDUSTRY ; EXPECTATIONS ; RISK ; MATHEMATICS;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - General

Cited by:
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  1. Caroline Elliott & Rob Simmons, 2008. "Determinants of UK Box Office Success: The Impact of Quality Signals," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 93-111, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. W David Walls, 2004. "Modeling movie success when "nobody knows anything": Conditional stable distribution analysis of film returns," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 409, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. S. Ravid & John Wald & Suman Basuroy, 2006. "Distributors and film critics: does it take two to Tango?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 201-218, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. W. D. Walls, 2008. "Screen Wars, Star Wars, and Sequels: Nonparametric Reanalysis of Movie Profitability," Working Papers 2008-28, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 24 Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ricard Gil & Wesley Hartmann, 2007. "The Role and Determinants of Concession Sales in Movie Theaters: Evidence from the Spanish Exhibition Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 325-347, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. W. D. Walls, 2005. "Demand stochastics, supply adaptation, and the distribution of film earnings," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 619-623, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. William N. Goetzmann & Vicente Pons-Sanz & S. Abraham Ravid, 2004. "Soft Information, Hard Sell: The Role of Soft Information in the Pricing of Intellectual Property," NBER Working Papers 10468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. S. Ravid, 2005. "The Big Picture: The New Logic Of Money And Power In Hollywood," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 239-242, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. W. Walls, 2003. "John Sedgwick: 2001, Popular Filmgoing in 1930s Britain: A Choice of Pleasures," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 298-301, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. David Maddison, 2005. "Are There Too Many Revivals on Broadway? A Stochastic Dominance Approach," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 325-334, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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