Can Policy Reforms Enhance Fertility? An Ex-Ante Evaluation through Factorial Survey Experiments

This paper contributes to the literature on the family policies-fertility nexus by assessing the potential role of parental leaves, childcare services, and child benefits on fertility through the use of factorial survey experiments (FSE). We focus on Italy, a country whose lowest-low fertility is often traced back to its familistic and sub-protective welfare state. We collected data on 4,022 respondents aged 20-44 and exposed them to several scenarios characterised by different family policy packages. We asked them to ascribe short-term fertility intentions to a fictitious couple under these different policy scenarios, in a sort of ex-ante evaluation of possible policy reforms. Results show that each of the family-friendly policies we envisioned in the experiment positively impacts ascribed fertility intentions. The availability of full-time, public childcare services seems more relevant than higher child benefits, whereas more generous and gender-equal parental leaves are perceived as less relevant. However, results suggest that only a consistent mix of financial benefits, parental leave schemes, and childcare provisions can potentially boost fertility intentions, whereas marginal changes in single policy levers are most likely ineffective. The results of our FSE point out that a couple’s socioeconomic status is perceived as more important than family policies for fertility decisions, as ascribed fertility intentions increase substantially when both partners of the fictitious couple are employed and household income is high. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for policymaking.