Inflation risk in the U.S. yield curve: the usefulness of indexed bonds
AbstractThe inflation-indexed bonds the U.S. Treasury plans to issue will reduce the expected borrowing cost if the yield curve reflects a risk premium for inflation. In the United Kingdom, indexed bonds are also used to extract inflationary expectations and thus to guide monetary policy. The bonds will produce a more reliable measure of such expectations if the inflation risk premium is taken into account. We estimate such a risk premium for the United States by means of a two-factor affine-yield model of the term structure. The model allows both the inflation risk premium and real term premium to vary over time. Using monthly data on CPI inflation and on bond yields for two-year to ten-year maturities, we find both premia to have been significant for the sample period January 1984 to July 1996. We estimate that indexed bonds would have saved an average of one-fifth of the expected borrowing cost of 10-year notes.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Research Paper with number 9637.
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- LuisM. Viceira & John Y. Campbell, 2001.
"Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 99-127, March.
- John Y. CAMPBELL & Luis VICEIRA, 1998. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," FAME Research Paper Series rp5, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1998. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," NBER Working Papers 6801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 2000. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1895, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Viceira, Luis & Campbell, John, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," Scholarly Articles 3128709, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Reschreiter, Andreas, 2008. "Lower borrowing costs with inflation-indexed bonds: A trading rule based assessment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 272-274, May.
- Kanas, Angelos, 2014. "Bond futures, inflation-indexed bonds, and inflation risk premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 82-99.
- Madureira, Leonardo, 2007. "The ex ante real rate and inflation premium under a habit consumption model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 355-382, June.
- Reschreiter, Andreas, 2004. "Conditional funding costs of inflation-indexed and conventional government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1299-1318, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Farber).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.