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Coronavirus Outbreak Sends Consumer Expectations Plummeting

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Abstract

The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its March 2020 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), which provides information on consumers' economic expectations and behavior. In particular, the survey covers respondents’ views on how income, spending, inflation, credit access, and housing and labor market conditions will evolve over time. The March survey, which was fielded between March 2 and 31, records a substantial deterioration in financial and economic expectations, including sharp declines in household income and spending growth expectations. As shown in the first two columns of the table below, the median expected year-ahead growth in income and spending declined from 2.7 percent and 3.1 percent in February to 2.1 percent and 2.3 percent in March, respectively. Similarly, expectations about home price growth plunged from 3.1 percent in February to 1.3 percent in March. The March reading for one-year home price growth expectations came in about 1.4 percentage points below the previous low for the series, which stretches back to June 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Armantier & Gizem Koşar & Rachel Pomerantz & Daphne Skandalis & Kyle Smith & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2020. "Coronavirus Outbreak Sends Consumer Expectations Plummeting," Liberty Street Economics 20200406b, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:87707
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Jiri Slacalek & Matthew N. White, 2021. "Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 107-141, March.
    2. Anna Doś & Monika Wieczorek-Kosmala & Joanna Błach, 2022. "The Effect of Business Legal Form on the Perception of COVID-19-Related Disruptions by Households Running a Business," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectations; COVID-19;

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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