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A simultaneous equations analysis of analysts’ forecast bias and institutional ownership

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Author Info
Lucy F. Ackert
George Athanassakos

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Abstract

In this paper we use a simultaneous equations model to examine the relationship between analysts' forecasting decisions and institutions' investment decisions. Neglecting their interaction results in model misspecification. We find that analysts' optimism concerning a firm's earnings responds positively to changes in the number of institutions holding the firm's stock. At the same time, institutional demand responds positively to increases in analysts' optimism. We also investigate several firm characteristics as determinants of analysts' and institutions' decisions. We conclude that agency-driven behavioral considerations are significant.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2000-5.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2000-5

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Keywords: Financial institutions ; Forecasting ; Financial markets;

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  1. Lakonishok, Josef, et al, 1991. "Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 227-31, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Bhushan, Ravi, 1989. "Firm characteristics and analyst following," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 255-274, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lucy F. Ackert & William C. Hunter, 1993. "Rational expectations and the dynamic adjustment of security analysts' forecasts to new information," Working Paper 93-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Brennan, Michael J. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1995. "Investment analysis and price formation in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 361-381, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Ping Zhang, 1999. "The effect of forecast bias on market behavior: evidence from experimental asset markets," Working Paper 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Do Security Analysts Overreact?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 52-57, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ackert, Lucy F & Hunter, William C, 1994. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Adjustment of Security Analysts' Forecasts to New Information," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association and Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 387-401, Fall.
  10. Hausman, Jerry A., 1983. "Specification and estimation of simultaneous equation models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 391-448 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Falkenstein, Eric G, 1996. " Preferences for Stock Characteristics as Revealed by Mutual Fund Portfolio Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 111-35, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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