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Sovereign debt sustainability scenarios based on an estimated model for Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Jan in 't Veld
  • Andrea Pagano
  • Marco Ratto
  • Werner Roeger
  • Istvan P. Szekely

Abstract

This paper proposes a framework for sovereign debt sustainability assessment based on an estimated DSGE model. One advantage of this is that it allows taking into account feedback effects of debt ratios, spreads and fiscal measures on growth and tax bases, and thus capture the impact of changes in the composition of GDP which is pronounced during fiscal consolidation. Unsustainable debt developments may give rise to increasing interest rate spreads which could further reduce growth and tax revenue and worsen debt dynamics, while fiscal austerity measures are likely to reduce growth and lower tax revenues in the short run. Capturing the impact of risk premium on growth and public debt dynamics is crucial to understand current developments and policy trade-offs in euro area periphery countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan in 't Veld & Andrea Pagano & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Istvan P. Szekely, 2012. "Sovereign debt sustainability scenarios based on an estimated model for Spain," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 466, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0466
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    Cited by:

    1. Tielens, J. & van Aarle, B. & Van Hove, J., 2014. "Effects of Eurobonds: A stochastic sovereign debt sustainability analysis for Portugal, Ireland and Greece," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 156-173.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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