IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ese/emodwp/em9-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nowcasting risk of poverty and low work intensity in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Leventi, Chrysa
  • Rastrigina, Olga
  • Sutherland, Holly

Abstract

Very low work intensity and at-risk-of-poverty are two of the three indicators used for monitoring progress towards the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion reduction target. Their timeliness is critical for tracing the effectiveness of policy interventions towards reaching this target. However, due in part to the complicated nature of microdata collection and processing, official Eurostat estimates of these indicators become available with a significant delay. This paper presents a method of estimating (‘nowcasting’) very low work intensity and poverty risk using the tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD based on EU-SILC data and combined with up-to-date macro-level statistics from the Labour Force Survey. The method is applied to 12 EU Member States for the period 2009-2013. Its performance is assessed by comparing the EUROMOD estimates with the official Eurostat statistics for the years for which the latter are available. The most important measurement issues of the work intensity indicator that are relevant in the context of nowcasting are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Leventi, Chrysa & Rastrigina, Olga & Sutherland, Holly, 2015. "Nowcasting risk of poverty and low work intensity in Europe," EUROMOD Working Papers EM9/15, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:ese:emodwp:em9-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/euromod/em9-15.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:revinw:v:60:y:2014:i::p:s177-s204 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Marloes Graaf-zijl & Brian Nolan, 2011. "GINI DP 5: Household Joblessness and its Impacts on Poverty and Deprivation in Europe," GINI Discussion Papers 5, AIAS, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leventi, Chrysa & Rastrigina, Olga & Sutherland, Holly & Vujackov, Sanja, 2016. "Nowcasting: estimating developments in median household income and risk of poverty in 2014 and 2015," EUROMOD Working Papers EM8/16, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    2. Petr Janský & Klára Kalíšková & Daniel Münich, 2016. "Does the Czech Tax and Benefit System Contribute to One of Europe’s Lowest Levels of Relative Income Poverty and Inequality?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 191-207, May.
    3. Leventi, Chrysa & Rastrigina, Olga & Sutherland, Holly, 2015. "Nowcasting: estimating developments in the risk of poverty and income distribution in 2013 and 2014," EUROMOD Working Papers EM12/15, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Watson, Dorothy & Maître, Bertrand & Whelan, Christopher T., 2012. "Work and Poverty in Ireland: An Analysis of CSO Survey on Income and Living Conditions 2004-2010," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT226, June.
    2. Annemie Nys & Leen Meeusen & Vincent Corluy, 2016. "Who cares? A Counterfactual Analysis of Household Work Intensity in Households with Disabled Family Members," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(2), pages 675-691, September.
    3. Mikael Nygård & Marja Lindberg & Fredrica Nyqvist & Camilla Härtull, 2019. "The Role of Cash Benefit and In-Kind Benefit Spending for Child Poverty in Times of Austerity: An Analysis of 22 European Countries 2006–2015," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 533-552, December.
    4. Andrea Brandolini & Alfonso Rosolia, 2019. "The Distribution of Well-Being among Europeans," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1052, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    5. Pim Verbunt & Anne-Catherine Guio, 2019. "Explaining Differences Within and Between Countries in the Risk of Income Poverty and Severe Material Deprivation: Comparing Single and Multilevel Analyses," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 827-868, July.
    6. Jacqueline O’Reilly & Werner Eichhorst & András Gábos & Kari Hadjivassiliou & David Lain & Janine Leschke & Seamus McGuinness & Lucia Mýtna Kureková & Tiziana Nazio & Renate Ortlieb & Helen Russ, 2015. "Five Characteristics of Youth Unemployment in Europe," SAGE Open, , vol. 5(1), pages 21582440155, March.
    7. Biegert, Thomas & Özcan, Berkay & Rossetti Youlton, Magdalena, 2023. "Household joblessness in US metropolitan areas during the COVID19 pandemic: polarization and the role of educational profiles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118181, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Ive Marx & Pieter Vandenbroucke & Verbist, G. (Gerlinde), 2011. "GINI DP 15: Can higher employment levels bring down poverty in the EU?," GINI Discussion Papers 15, AIAS, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies.
    9. Mary Daly, 2012. "Paradigms in EU social policy: a critical account of Europe 2020," Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research, , vol. 18(3), pages 273-284, August.
    10. Andrea Brandolini & Eliana Viviano, 2016. "Behind and beyond the (head count) employment rate," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(3), pages 657-681, June.
    11. Whelan, Adele & Devlin, Anne & McGuinness, Seamus, 2023. "Social Inclusion and Levels of Urbanisation: Does It Matter Where You Live?," IZA Discussion Papers 16052, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Jeroen Horemans, 2016. "Polarisation of Non-standard Employment in Europe: Exploring a Missing Piece of the Inequality Puzzle," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 171-189, January.
    13. Anne-Catherine Guio & Eric Marlier & Frank Vandenbroucke & Pim Verbunt, 2022. "Differences in Child Deprivation Across Europe: The Role of In-Cash and In-Kind Transfers," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 15(6), pages 2363-2388, December.
    14. E. Bárcena-Martín & B. Lacomba & A. I. Moro-Egido & S. Pérez-Moreno, 2014. "Country Differences in Material Deprivation in Europe," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(4), pages 802-820, December.
    15. McGuinness, Seamus & Whelan, Adele & Bergin, Adele & Delaney, Judith, 2018. "Profiling barriers to social inclusion in Ireland: the relative roles of individual characteristics and location," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS71, June.
    16. Marx, Ive & Vandenbroucke, Pieter & Verbist, Gerlinde, 2011. "Can Higher Employment Levels Bring Lower Poverty in the EU? Regression Based Simulations of the Europe 2020 Target," IZA Discussion Papers 6068, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ese:emodwp:em9-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jonathan Nears (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rcessuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.