Where is the future of China’s biogas? Review, forecast, and policy implications

This paper discusses the history and present status of different categories of biogas production in China, most of which are classified into rural household production, agriculture-based engineering production, and industry-based engineering production. To evaluate the future biogas production of China, five models including the Hubbert model, the Weibull model, the generalized Weng model, the H–C–Z model, and the Grey model are applied to analyze and forecast the biogas production of each province and the entire country. It is proved that those models which originated from oil research can also be applied to other energy sources. The simulation results reveal that China’s total biogas production is unlikely to keep on a fast-growing trend in the next few years, mainly due to a recent decrease in rural household production, and this greatly differs from the previous goal set by the official department. In addition, China’s biogas production will present a more uneven pattern among regions in the future. This paper will give preliminary explanation for the regional difference of the three biogas sectors and propose some recommendations for instituting corresponding policies and strategies to promote the development of the biogas industry in China.