IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eea/boewps/wp2020-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Elevated survey uncertainty after the Great Recession: a non-linear approach

Author

Listed:
  • Natalia Levenko

Abstract

The European Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is a dataset that is widely used to derive measures of forecast uncertainty. Participants in the SPF provide not only point estimates but also density forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. The mean individual variance, defined as the average of the variances of individual forecasts, shifted up during the Great Recession and has remained elevated since the crisis. This shift is not typical since proxies for uncertainty are usually counter-cyclical. The paper seeks to explain this puzzling lack of countercyclicality by applying a smooth transition analysis on data from the European SPF. The analysis indicates that the mean individual variance has a non-linear relationship with the share of non-rounded responses in the survey and consequently the upward shift in individual variance is likely to be associated with changes in the modelling preferences of forecasters. The results remain robust after potential endogeneity has been accounted for

Suggested Citation

  • Natalia Levenko, 2020. "Elevated survey uncertainty after the Great Recession: a non-linear approach," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2020-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 18 May 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2020-2
    DOI: 10.23656/25045520/022020/0175
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.23656/25045520/022020/0175
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.23656/25045520/022020/0175?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    survey uncertainty; forecast disagreement; density forecasts; surveys of professional forecasters; Great Recession; smooth transition; instrumental variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2020-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peeter Luikmel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/epgovee.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.