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A bayesian spatial individual effects probit model of the 2010 UK general election

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  • Jensen, Christa
  • Lacombe, Donald
  • Mcintyre, Stuart

Abstract

The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specic effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specic effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.

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File URL: http://repo.sire.ac.uk/handle/10943/323
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) in its series SIRE Discussion Papers with number 2012-20.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:323

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Keywords: United Kingdom General Election; Bayesian hierarchical modelling; spatial econometrics;

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