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A bayesian spatial individual effects probit model of the 2010 UK general election

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  • Jensen, Christa
  • Lacombe, Donald
  • Mcintyre, Stuart

Abstract

The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specic effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specic effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.

Suggested Citation

  • Jensen, Christa & Lacombe, Donald & Mcintyre, Stuart, 2012. "A bayesian spatial individual effects probit model of the 2010 UK general election," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-20, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:323
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10943/323
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    Keywords

    United Kingdom General Election; Bayesian hierarchical modelling; spatial econometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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