Terrorism and the Stock Market
AbstractThis paper examines the stock price impact of terrorist attacks. Using an official list of terrorism related incidents compiled by the Counterterrorism Office of the U.S. Department of State, we identify 75 attacks between 1995 and 2002 in which publicly traded firms are targets. An event study analysis around the day of the attacks uncovers evidence of a statistically significant negative stock price reaction of -0.83%, which corresponds to an average loss per firm per attack of $401 million in firm market capitalization. A cross sectional analysis of the abnormal returns indicates that the impact of terrorist attacks differs according to the home country of the target firm and the country in which the incident occurred. Attacks in countries that are wealthier and more democratic are associated with larger negative share price reactions. Most interestingly, we find that human capital losses, such as kidnappings of company executives, are associated with larger negative stock price reactions than physical losses, such as bombings of facilities or buildings. We discuss the implications of these findings for existing research on terrorism and for current policy debates like the renewal of the U.S. Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA).
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2005-19.
Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision:
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- Arin, K. Peren & Ciferri, Davide & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2008. "The price of terror: The effects of terrorism on stock market returns and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 164-167, December.
- Capelle-Blancard, Gunther & Couderc, Nicolas, 2008.
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Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 14-32.
- Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Nicolas Couderc, 2005. "What drives the market value of firms in the Defense industry ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06037, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), revised Apr 2006.
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