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Will Electric Cars Transform the U.S. Market?

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Listed:
  • Lee, Henry

    (Harvard University)

  • Lovellette, Grant

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

For the past forty years, United States Presidents have repeatedly called for a reduction in the country's dependence on fossil fuels in general and foreign oil specifically. Stronger efficiency standards and higher taxes on motor fuels are a step in this direction, but achieving even greater reductions in oil consumption will require changing the way Americans power their transportation system. Some officials advocate the electrification of the passenger vehicle fleet as a path to meeting this goal. The Obama administration has, for example, embraced a goal of having one million electric-powered vehicles on U.S. roads by 2015, while others proposed a medium-term goal where electric vehicles would consist of 20% of the passenger vehicle fleet by 2030--approximately 30 million electric vehicles. The technology itself is not in question--many of the global automobile companies are planning to sell plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and/or battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2012. The key question is, will Americans buy them? The answer depends on four additional questions: 1. Is the cost of purchasing and operating an electric vehicle more or less expensive than the cost of a comparable conventional gasoline-powered vehicle? 2. Are the comparative costs likely to change over the next twenty years? 3. Do electric vehicles provide the same attributes as conventional cars, and if not, do the differences matter? 4. Will electric car owners be able to access the electricity needed to power their vehicles? This paper attempts to answer these four questions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Henry & Lovellette, Grant, 2011. "Will Electric Cars Transform the U.S. Market?," Working Paper Series rwp11-032, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp11-032
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    Cited by:

    1. van Velzen, Arjan & Annema, Jan Anne & van de Kaa, Geerten & van Wee, Bert, 2019. "Proposing a more comprehensive future total cost of ownership estimation framework for electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1034-1046.
    2. Ewelina Sendek-Matysiak & Dariusz Pyza & Zbigniew Łosiewicz & Wojciech Lewicki, 2022. "Total Cost of Ownership of Light Commercial Electrical Vehicles in City Logistics," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-23, November.
    3. Weiss, Martin & Patel, Martin K. & Junginger, Martin & Perujo, Adolfo & Bonnel, Pierre & van Grootveld, Geert, 2012. "On the electrification of road transport - Learning rates and price forecasts for hybrid-electric and battery-electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 374-393.
    4. Burke, Andrew & Collantes, Gustavo O & Miller, Marshall & Zhao, Hengbing, 2015. "Analytic Tool to Support the Implementation of Electric Vehicle Programs," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt9r6227zh, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    5. Abu Bakar Siddique & Hossam A. Gabbar, 2023. "Adaptive Mixed-Integer Linear Programming-Based Energy Management System of Fast Charging Station with Nuclear–Renewable Hybrid Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-22, January.

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