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Inflation Targets as a Stabilisation Device

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  • Mahadeva, Lavan

    (Bank of England)

  • Gabriel Sterne

Abstract

Over 80% of countries using explicit inflation targets in 2000 were doing so either as part of a disinflation strategy, or when inflation was neither low nor stable. Our illustrative theoretical model suggests annual revisions to short-run targets are endogenous to inflation outcomes during disinflation as long as the policymaker cares about misses from both the short-run target and a long-run target. Furthermore, target revisions will are larger when the target is undershot compared to when the target is overshot. We confirm the result using cross-country panel estimates from a unique data-set of inflation target misses in 60 countries in the 1990s. During disinflation it is therefore relatively difficult to separate decisions about target-setting from implementation. Short-term targets on a disinflation path may be more akin to conditional forecasts than policy rules, but their publication may nevertheless increase transparency and hence help policymakers to achieve lower inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 with number 134.

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Date of creation: 29 Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2002:134

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Cited by:
  1. Felipe Morandé L., 2001. "A Decade of Inflation Targeting in Chile: Developments, Lessons, and Challenges," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 4(1), pages 35-62, April.
  2. Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Inflation Targets in a Global Context," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 2, pages 023-078 Central Bank of Chile.
  3. J. Benson Durham, 2001. "Sacrifice ratios and monetary policy credibility: do smaller budget deficits, inflation-indexed debt, and inflation targets lower disinflation costs?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Lucía Cuadro Sáez & Sonsoles Gallego Herrero & Alicia García Herrero, 2003. "Why Do Countries Develop More Financially Than Others? The Role Of The Central Bank And Banking Supervision," Finance 0304006, EconWPA.
  5. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003603, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. Felipe Morandé & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2000. "Chile's Peso: Better than (Just) Living with the Dollar?," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 37(110), pages 177-226.
  7. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2001. "Does it pay to be transparent? International evidence from central bank forecasts," Bank of England working papers 143, Bank of England.
  8. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, . "The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 202, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  9. Rodrigo Caputo, 2009. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy. Does it Pay to Respond to Exchange Rate Desviations?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 24(1), pages 55-99, Junio.
  10. Julian A. Parra POlanía, 2012. "Transparency: can central banks commit to truthful communication?," Borradores de Economia 711, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  11. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August.
  12. Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "Exchange Rates, Inflation and Monetary Policy Objectives in Open Economies: The Experience of Chile," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 298, Econometric Society.
  13. Lavan Mahadeva and Paul Robinson, 2004. "Unit Root Testing in a Central Bank," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 22.

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