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Predicting recessions and recoveries in real time: The euro area-wide leading indicator (ALI)

Author

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  • Hahn, Elke
  • de Bondt, Gabe

Abstract

This study develops a new monthly euro Area-wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives the composite ALI by applying a deviation cycle methodology with a one-sided band pass filter and choosing nine leading series. Our main findings are that i) the applied monthly reference business cycle indicator (BCI) derived from industrial production excluding construction is close to identical to the real GDP cycle, ii) the ALI reliably leads the BCI by 6 months and iii) the longer leading components of the ALI are good predictors of the ALI and therefore the BCI up to almost a year ahead and satisfactory predictors by up to 2 years ahead. A real-time analysis for predicting the euro business cycle during the 2008/2009 recession and following recovery confirms these findings. JEL Classification: E32

Suggested Citation

  • Hahn, Elke & de Bondt, Gabe, 2010. "Predicting recessions and recoveries in real time: The euro area-wide leading indicator (ALI)," Working Paper Series 1246, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101246
    Note: 854549
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1246.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dr Martin Weale & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & George Kapetanios & Ray Smith, 1999. "The Forecasting Performance of the OECD Composite Leading Indicators for France, Germany, Italy," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 155, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Knut Lehre Seip & Yunus Yilmaz & Michael Schröder, 2019. "Comparing Sentiment- and Behavioral-Based Leading Indexes for Industrial Production: When Does Each Fail?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-18, October.
    2. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    3. Michael Bleaney & Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, 2012. "Bond Spreads as Predictors of Economic Activity in Eight European Economies," Discussion Papers 12/11, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    4. Gross, Marco, 2011. "Corporate bond spreads and real activity in the euro area - Least Angle Regression forecasting and the probability of the recession," Working Paper Series 1286, European Central Bank.
    5. Michael Bleaney & Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, 2016. "Bond Spreads and Economic Activity in Eight European Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(598), pages 2257-2291, December.
    6. Pablo Galaso & Sandra Rodriguez, 2014. "A composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 14-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    7. Marco J. Lombardi & Philipp Maier, 2010. "‘Lean’ versus ‘Rich’ Data Sets: Forecasting during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Staff Working Papers 10-37, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; Deviation cycle; euro area; Leading Indicator; Real‐time analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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